I’m seeing the Palantir setup again

Summary

Tom Nash argues that sharp selloffs can create opportunities in fundamentally strong companies. He says five stocks are showing a setup similar to Palantir’s earlier opportunity.

He frames recent volatility as part of a recurring market cycle:

Disbelief → hope → faith → euphoria → decline → anxiety → denial → panic → surrender, anger, and depression.

In his view, investors can find opportunities during the cycle’s later stages, but should prepare for volatility rather than try to predict its timing.

Nash warns viewers not to react impulsively to sharp market moves, while making a strongly bullish case for the five companies below. He says falling share prices can reflect sentiment and short-term expectations rather than deterioration in the underlying business.

Five stocks highlighted

The figures below are the speaker’s claims as rendered in the subtitles; some periods and figures are unclear or internally inconsistent.

• Alphabet / Google (GOOGL/GOOG): The speaker says the stock fell about 10% overnight and was up only 6% over the past year. He cites 25% revenue growth, 103% Google Cloud growth, 30% operating-income growth, and a 32% operating margin. Google Cloud allegedly grew operating profit 209%, had a 36% operating margin, and represented 24% of the business, up from 15% the prior year. He says the cloud business has a backlog of roughly $560–600 billion. He attributes the share-price weakness to a small revenue miss ($127.58 billion vs. $127.97 billion) and doubled capital expenditure ($24 billion to $51 billion), which he says has pressured free cash flow by about $10 billion. Cited valuation figures are a 0.6 forward PEG and 19 forward P/E. Nash views the spending as necessary to build cloud capacity.

• Nvidia (NVDA): The speaker says the stock was up about 4% over the past year, versus 12% for the S&P 500. He cites 106% revenue growth, nearly 20% operating-profit growth, cash equal to about twice debt, a 0.3 forward PEG, 13.5 forward P/E, and a 65% operating margin. The subtitle also says “17 times revenue,” which appears inconsistent with the other valuation figures. Nash argues the stock is being overlooked after a long run of strong growth.

• Palantir (PLTR): The speaker says the stock was down about 1% over the past year, roughly 13 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500. He cites 93% revenue growth, 21% operating-income growth, and cash about five times debt. Cited valuation figures are a 1.26 forward PEG and 57 forward P/E, compared with a forward P/E of 110 and forward PEG of 5.7 a year earlier. Nash characterizes it as a software “monopolist” and says improving earnings growth has made its valuation more reasonable.

• Amazon (AMZN): The speaker says the stock was up about 10.5% over the past year, but lagged the S&P 500. He cites 20% revenue growth, 43% operating-income growth, a 0.25 forward PEG, and an 18 forward P/E. He points to AWS, commerce, advertising, logistics, and vertical integration, and says capacity is sold out for 2026 and 2027. The subtitles include a confusing claim that Amazon could be bought at “three times less than its earnings,” which does not clearly align with the stated P/E of 18.

• Bloom Energy (BE): The speaker says the stock was up about 70% over the past year. Nash presents its on-site power systems as a solution to data centers’ energy constraints. He cites a 0.27 forward PEG, 27 forward P/E, 140% earnings growth, 2,700% operating-profit growth, and 1,200% net-profit growth, with debt roughly equal to cash. He describes the company as a potential leader in on-site data-center power.

Other market and company commentary

The speaker says Fortinet (FTNT) fell 26%, ServiceNow (NOW) fell 18%, and Google fell 10% in one day. He also names Oracle (ORCL) as down 40% from its peak, Arm (ARM) as down nearly 50%, and says Broadcom (AVGO), Micron (MU), Meta (META), and Marvell (MRVL) had also fallen.

• ServiceNow: Despite the one-day decline, Nash says the company reported 20.5% revenue growth and 39% free-cash-flow growth, beat revenue expectations, but missed EPS ($0.27 vs. $0.35). He cites cash at 2.5 times debt, a “Rule of 40” near 60, a 24 forward P/E, and 70% growth in its AI segment. He says ServiceNow is not on his five-stock list, though he is bullish on it.

• Fortinet: Nash cites 20% growth and 52% free-cash-flow growth, with revenue and EPS above forecasts. Services allegedly grew 13% and products 37%. He says the forecast was $5.15 billion vs. $5.17 billion expected, and cites cash at four times debt, a 34 forward P/E, and a “Rule of 40” of 62. Fortinet is also not on his five-stock list.

Investing framework and cautions

• Focus on business quality, growth, cash generation, balance-sheet strength, and longer-term investment needs—not just short-term price moves or small forecast misses.
• Expect volatility and avoid panic selling or buying from FOMO; the speaker says the timing of market-cycle turns cannot be predicted.
• Nash opens by telling viewers not to press anything, break anything, or buy anything, and to listen carefully. Nonetheless, his discussion is explicitly bullish on the five named stocks and includes statements that Google and Amazon are attractive opportunities.

Disclosures and sources

The video description states that the content is for educational and entertainment purposes only, represents the author’s opinion, and is not tax, legal, financial, or investment advice or a solicitation to invest. It advises viewers to do their own research and consult an independent licensed professional. The author disclaims liability for investment decisions and for the accuracy or timeliness of the information.

Presenter/source: Tom Nash, who also promotes the Tom Nash Academy/ROIC Academy.