Нефть или золото: на что делать ставку? Акции Европлана. Будущее ЮГК. Инфляция в России: прогнозы

Market / macro highlights (Russia & global)

FX / rates

• USD official rate: Central Bank set/quoted 7,462 rubles per $.
• Overnight FX (“exchange”) rate: fell below 14%
  • mentioned prints: ~14% this morning → market close ~13.61% (1361)
• Interbank liquidity tightening easing: money-market/intrabank rates implied liquidity is abundant versus the key rate (sometimes discussed as ~1 percentage point below the key rate).

Stock market turnover / retail flows (Moscow Exchange)

• In April, retail investment in equities nearly doubled to 45 bn rubles.
• “People’s portfolio”
  • Sber weight rose to 37% (highest since June last year).
  • Oil & gas sector weight slightly decreased.
  • Portfolio performance: -4% over a month, but still outperformed the MOEX index (-8%).

Bonds / private bond market

• Private bond investments rose again to a record 266 bn rubles.
• 2/3 were corporate issues.

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Oil vs gold (asset allocation discussion)

• Narrative: oil and gold have been switching between risk-off / risk-on responses, for example:
  • oil up when Middle East conflict spurs gold expectation,
  • later oil down while gold up.
• Guest views (market commentary, not a formal model):
  • Asset manager #1: currently prefers gold over oil, but notes gold may be somewhat expensive. Cites central banks selling gold except China buying.
  • Asset manager #2: bets more on gold while oil is in “limbo” linked to attempts to resolve the Middle East conflict quickly.

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Portfolio / trading instruments & sectors mentioned

Gold miners

• Polyus
• Yuzhural Gold (UGK / YUGKS referenced)
• Aural / Aral Gold (spelled variably)
• UGK Ros Immovables (UGK Ros Immovables; linked to auction)

Other Russian equities

• Alfa-Bank (corporate action impacting Europlan)
• Mosgor(lombard) / MosgorLombard
• Lukoil, Rosneft, Tatneft
• Gazprom, Novatek
• Sberbank (Sber), T-Technology (mentioned as removed from “people’s portfolio”)
• X5 (retailer), Ozon, Yandex

Derivatives

• Futures were mentioned generally.
• Speakers favored stocks over futures for liquidity/timing in the Russian market.

Macro / commodity tie-ins

• Oil: driven by geopolitics (including references to straits/settlement rumors).
• Gold: US fiscal crisis cited as a driver.

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Corporate actions / events (key numbers & timelines)

Europlan (leasing) — minority buyout dynamics

• Shares jumped ~6% after Alfa-Bank announced a plan to extend a second buyback offer to minority shareholders.
• First offer
  • Made in January
  • Premium: 20% vs prior day close
  • Alfa-Bank + affiliated holdings exceeded 95%, triggering obligation to notify minority holders of voluntary buyout.
• Second offer
  • Expected to be submitted before end of May.

UGK Ros Immovables / Yuzhural-linked auction

• Auction date: May 8
• Sale: 67.2% of group shares plus certain assets
• Application window: until May 15
• Results: May 18
• Total asset value estimated: >162 bn rubles
• Stated that Selekdar / Areal / Polymetal do not intend to participate.
• If auction fails: Finance Ministry mentioned a Dutch auction as next step (example cited: Domodedovo).

Yuzhural Gold — investor reaction

• “Small reaction” around news that the auction will take place in May (auction dates already known).

MGKL / MosgorLombard — operating update

• First 4 months operating report:
  • Revenue almost tripled
  • Retail clients ~+40%
• Despite this, shares fell ~1.5% on the day.

Dividends (general market data)

• “Pole” shareholders approved final payments effective May 18 (25th year referenced).
• “Positive group” approved dividends for Q1 (effective for “25th year”).
• Record/registry close: May 17
• Dividend yields mentioned: ~2.5% or slightly higher.
• Dividend season discussed as a likely near-term driver for share demand ahead of cutoff dates.

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Methodology / frameworks explicitly referenced

Rate-cut expectations framework

• Broad consensus: 50 bps key rate cut.
• Investors infer future moves from:
  • inflation developments (including one-off VAT effects),
  • closure of the output gap,
  • ruble strength and FX market dynamics,
  • tightness of monetary conditions,
  • money supply growth and real-sector signals.

Investment approach preference

• For event-driven trading: use stocks rather than futures because:
  • futures may react first with fast price jumps,
  • the Russian market is “slower” than global,
  • liquidity considerations for quick entry.

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Key recommendations / cautions (from speakers)

• Gold vs oil: preference for gold at this stage (both guests leaned gold over oil), with cautions that:
  • gold may still be expensive,
  • central bank behavior may not be uniformly supportive (China buying, others selling).
• Russian gold miners:
  • Polyus viewed as relatively stronger due to the “strongest report,” dividends, and less “limbo” vs Yuzhural, where auction uncertainty remains.
• Europlan risk note:
  • Minority holders could suffer losses if the buyout price is unfavorable.
  • Weighted-average pricing logic discussed:
    • possibility of offering a weighted average over 6 months (example: ~610 weighted average; last offer reference price ~679).
  • Potential implied risk of delisting for non-participants.
• Sber tactical view (long-term investor):
  • Hold through dividends; increase stake before dividends, sell after dividends.
  • “Buy cheaper” level discussed: if Sber drops to ~300 or below 300, reconsider/add.
  • Commentary suggested Sber could hover around 328–330 thresholds discussed, but it’s viewed as somewhat expensive versus the broader market.

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Central Bank “resume” (Bank of Russia) — numbers & policy stance

• Consensus: 50 basis point cut.
• Supporting arguments (as summarized):
  • Q1 inflation 8.7% below February estimates (seasonally adjusted).
  • Q1 inflation rise driven largely by a one-off factor: VAT tariff indexation; contribution to annual price growth ~1 percentage point.
  • Positive output gap closed faster than expected.
  • Strong ruble suggests rate should stay restrictive “like now” despite FX-market actions by MoF.
  • Even after the cut, monetary conditions remain tight.
• Dissent / keep-rate arguments:
  • No clear trend to slower sustainable price growth.
  • Money supply growth still elevated.
  • Signs demand may revive faster than expected.
  • Budget policy risks could keep disinflation weaker than expected.
• Market-implied path:
  • Expected another 50 bps cut at the next meeting unless something changes.

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Currency / ruble outlook & targets (macro)

• Ruble level cited: around 75 rubles per $.
• Macro analyst view:
  • Ruble strength described as abnormal given that ruble money supply allegedly doubled over 4 years, while goods/services became ~2x more expensive domestically.
  • Expected ruble strength effect to ease as real interest rates fall.
• Budget rule / MoF FX sales
  • Budget rules aim to prevent excessive ruble strengthening (or weakening).
  • Forecast ranges for USD/ruble implied ruble weakening bounds: 75–77; lower band 70+; upper ~80+ (possibly 85).
• Purchasing power parity (PPP) note:
  • Ruble deviation from PPP framed as typical for emerging markets; PPP estimate mentioned: ~27–30 RUB per unit parity.

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• Explicit disclaimer: “not individual investment advice” (spoken by the macro guest regarding gold buying decisions).

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Presenters / sources

• Danil Bavich (studio host)
• Alexandra Panfilova (studio host)
• Sergey Drozdov (asset manager; guest)
• Oleg Bachkarev (author of the Linmet project / MF projects mentioned)
• Dmitry Golubkov (Director of Macroanalysis at OTP Bank)
• Ilya Tikhonov (mentioned as someone who will sum up the week later)
• External reference: Jim Rogers (referenced via interview; not present live)