Here's My Price Target Of Every Holding

Overview

Joseph Carlson reviews estimated fair values for his portfolio, discusses Amazon’s earnings and Anthropic’s growth and efficiency, and shares a non-investment “fail of the week.” He describes fair value as his subjective estimate of what a company is worth—not a precise forecast—and says he combines company and competitive analysis with some discounted cash-flow (DCF) work.

Carlson reports a portfolio of about $1.5 million, with roughly 60% invested in four or five companies. Weighting his estimates by position size, he considers the portfolio about 17% undervalued. If his holdings reached his estimates, he says the portfolio would be worth about $1.7 million.

Price targets for portfolio holdings

Company (ticker) Position and valuation points mentioned Carlson’s fair value / view Mastercard (MA) Position: $221,000; about $73,000 total profit. Shares around $659–660; 47% profit margin; forward P/E about 30. Up 17% YTD, according to the video. $700/share, about 6% upside. He calls it a hold, near fair value. Amazon (AMZN) Position: $182,000; about $57,000 profit. $350/share, about 40% upside. He considers it substantially undervalued. Alphabet / Google (GOOG/GOOGL) Described as facing uncertainty over whether advertising can withstand AI agents. $350/share, which he says implies 20%+ upside. He sees Amazon’s outlook as more transparent, but considers both attractive. Meta Platforms (META) Position: $167,000, currently about $18,000 down; more than 11% of the portfolio. $850/share, about 40% upside. He cites strong growth and cash generation, and estimates a forward P/E of about 26.5 at his target. S&P Global (SPGI) Position: $141,000, about $33,000 profit; shares at $475, P/E about 24. He mentions concerns about Agilent Technologies as a competitor. $550/share, about 16% upside; estimated forward P/E around 25–26 at that price. Microsoft (MSFT) Position: $110,000, about $56,000 profit; shares above $500, up 10% YTD. Forward P/E about 25; free-cash-flow yield 1.57%. $550/share, about 6–7% upside; he sees it as close to fair value. ASML (ASML) Position: $110,000, about $77,000 profit. Shares around $1,500, after a high near $2,000. He says he sold 20% of the position near $1,900 to fund Uber and DoorDash purchases. $1,800/share. He sees the company’s competitive moat as exceptional and says there is still upside, while noting a more mathematical valuation around $1,500. Costco (COST) Position: $89,000, with about $55,000 in gains. Shares around $1,000; current P/E cited as 45–46. $800/share. He considers it about 22% overvalued; at his target, it would still trade at a P/E of about 40. He is not in a hurry to sell. Netflix (NFLX) Position described as the ninth largest; shares around $62 after a fall of about 50%. He reports a 29% weighted return, or about $10,000 profit, while saying the position is closer to cost. $100/share, about 60% upside. He says a recovery in sentiment could lift the forward P/E from 17 to 25, but warns the stock could fall to $40 if performance continues to slow. Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Position: $54,000, with about $46,000 in gains. He says he previously trimmed the holding by about half after it grew to roughly $100,000. Shares at $186. Average weekly sales cited at $177,000, versus under $100,000 when he first bought shares. $200/share, about 5–6% upside. He expects the company to manage beef-price and commodity-inflation pressures better than competitors. Moody’s (MCO) Position: $53,000, about $12,000 profit; forward P/E 28. He says it traded around $400 earlier in the year. $500/share, roughly 1–2% above his estimate of current value. He is holding off on buying more. Duolingo (DUOL) Position: $33,000, about $13,000 down; approximately 2% of the portfolio. Shares at $135. He says user growth is encouraging but monetization is being sacrificed to attract users. $200/share, revised down from his prior estimate. He cautions that earnings are due the next day and could materially change his valuation. Uber (UBER) Position: $24,000, about $1,800 down; under 2% of the portfolio. Shares at $66. Earnings are due that week. $90/share, about 33% upside. He is considering adding, but says waiting until after earnings is the safer approach; another option he mentions is buying half before and half after. DoorDash (DASH) Position: $23,000, about $1,600 profit. He says its high current P/E reflects investment in market capture rather than near-term profit optimization. $250/share, about 33% upside. The subtitles say DoorDash signed a deal to buy Instacart; that claim is not independently verified here.

Valuation approach and portfolio cautions

• A stock’s trading price may reflect sentiment and short-term market movement, while an investor’s estimate of intrinsic or fair value is a separate judgment.
• Carlson assesses competitive advantages, financial outlook, the competitive environment, business risks, and a company’s long-term durability and growth.
• He uses DCF analysis for some estimates but applies judgment rather than relying on a single formula.
• He treats targets as guidelines, not predictions or guarantees. A stock may continue rising past fair value, or its price may fall below it.
• Carlson says he is not adding to some undervalued holdings because his portfolio is already highly concentrated. He prefers diversifying into other opportunities rather than increasing large positions further.
• He describes short-term post-earnings price swings as “noise” that investors should avoid overreacting to.

Amazon earnings and business outlook

• Amazon shares initially fell about 7% after earnings, then recovered about half the decline and were near their pre-report level within a few trading days.
• Revenue grew 15.4% in the latest quarter. The video cites analyst estimates of about 15–15.5% growth over the next several quarters, later reaching about 17.8%.
• Trailing 12-month revenue was about $797 billion, or roughly $800 billion. Carlson expects it could exceed $1 trillion by the end of 2028.
• AWS revenue grew 39% year over year to $45.9 billion, with a 38.7% margin. The video says growth could exceed 40% in 2027 and 2028. CEO Andy Jassy is quoted as saying AWS could become a $1 trillion revenue business within 5–10 years.
• Jassy is also cited as saying about 85% of global IT spending remains on on-premises infrastructure, leaving room for cloud migration over a 10–20-year period.
• Amazon’s free cash flow was reported as negative $34 billion for the quarter and negative $47 billion over the trailing 12 months. Its free-cash-flow margin was around –6%. Carlson attributes this to heavy investment in data centers and AI, with capital expenditure said to have nearly tripled.
• He compares the current spending cycle with Amazon’s earlier logistics investment cycle in late 2021 and early 2022, after which free cash flow recovered to about $50 billion. Carlson says that without the current AI investment, Amazon could generate more than $100 billion in free cash flow, but frames AI spending as a deliberate investment choice.
• The video says Amazon has over one million warehouse robots and speculates that automation of last-mile delivery—including self-driving vehicles and drones—could develop over the next 10 years.
• Carlson notes that Anthropic affected reported Amazon EPS and says excluding that effect gives a clearer view of underlying earnings growth.

Anthropic and AI

• Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue reportedly grew 45% sequentially, compared with 147% in the second quarter, and the company became unprofitable in Q3.
• Steve Eisman is cited as arguing that growth had slowed after “token maxing” ended and that efficiency declined: revenue divided by computing and infrastructure costs fell from 2.08 to 1.7.
• Carlson disagrees with the emphasis on token use, arguing that businesses are still increasing AI adoption and spending. He says Anthropic’s customer retention and expansion indicate that existing customers are spending substantially more. The subtitles describe an increase of over 900%, without clarifying the exact metric or comparison.
• Carlson says the efficiency ratio may be distorted by short-term computing expenses, while longer-term computing contracts—often five years or more—can be cheaper. The subtitles mention “$5” of short-term computing expense but do not make the unit clear.
• He acknowledges competition and expects growth to slow as Anthropic scales, but argues this does not by itself mean the AI boom is ending or that Anthropic is a weak business.
• Carlson says he is not investing in Anthropic now and does not plan to buy immediately after an IPO, though he may consider it later. He expects open-source models to pressure pricing but not necessarily replace established providers.

Assets and indices mentioned

Stocks and companies: Mastercard, Visa, Amazon, Alphabet/Google, Meta, S&P Global, Microsoft, ASML, Costco, Netflix, Texas Roadhouse, Moody’s, Duolingo, Uber, DoorDash, Agilent Technologies, Instacart, and Anthropic.

Other references: AWS (an Amazon segment), the QQQ ETF, the S&P 500, cloud computing, AI, and open-source AI models. No bonds, commodities, or cryptocurrencies are discussed.

Disclosures and sources

Carlson calls his valuations subjective and cautions that they may change with new information, especially upcoming earnings reports. No explicit “not financial advice” statement appears in the subtitles. The video promotes Qualtrim, including its membership and trial.

Presenter/source: Joseph Carlson. Other sources discussed or quoted: Steve Eisman on Anthropic; Andy Jassy on AWS and cloud growth; Pat McAfee’s program in the non-financial “fail of the week” segment.