Alastair Crooke: BREAKING: Trump Eyes Iran's Pickaxe Mountain—"We'll Knock It Out Fast"

Summary

The discussion centers on Donald Trump’s threat to strike Iran’s “Pickaxe Mountain” facility while ruling out the use of US ground troops. Alastair Crooke argues that a strike is a serious possibility, but questions whether the weapons available could achieve the stated objective.

Iran’s preparations

Crooke says Iran appears to be preparing for a major attack. He points to missile exercises, continued mobilization, and public training efforts, while noting that these preparations do not show whether Tehran expects an American or Israeli strike—or intends to act first.

US strike capabilities and military options

Crooke says the “Mother of All Bombs” is not a deep-penetration weapon and would be poorly suited to a facility buried beneath a steep granite mountain. He also questions whether conventional penetrators could reach infrastructure he describes as roughly 1,000 metres underground. He raises the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons, but stresses that their effectiveness against such a target is uncertain and their use would carry grave consequences.

In Crooke’s assessment, US forces have depleted or limited supplies of stand-off missiles and interceptors. He says Iranian shore-to-ship capabilities have pushed carrier groups farther from the coast, complicating aircraft operations and refuelling.

Crooke suggests that attacks on civilian infrastructure—such as water, electricity, and fuel—could become a fallback option. He warns, however, that deliberately disabling essential services would cause widespread civilian suffering and could constitute a war crime.

Israeli and US messaging

Crooke describes debate in Israel over whether Washington wants Israel to initiate an attack or whether Israel is urging Trump to act. He says Israeli security commentators dispute Benjamin Netanyahu’s claims of new evidence that Iran is moving toward a nuclear weapon; Crooke also says he sees no such evidence.

He characterizes Trump and Netanyahu’s public statements as a mutually reinforcing political narrative, while acknowledging uncertainty about Trump’s intentions and the influence of his political supporters.

Wider geopolitical conflict

Crooke presents Iran, Ukraine, and Yemen as connected fronts in what he calls a broader struggle to preserve Western—and especially US—dominance, with Russia and China among the larger rivals.

He argues that Iran’s long history of sanctions and conflict, including the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, shows that pressure on Tehran is not simply about its nuclear programme. In his view, the terms being discussed for any future agreement would amount to capitulation rather than a workable compromise.

Economic and regional risks

Crooke says attacks and threats affecting shipping around Hormuz have created a wider maritime crisis, with damaged vessels, higher charter costs, and disruption to the movement of oil and refined fuels. He argues that this compounds energy and diesel pressures.

He also describes Gulf economies—particularly Saudi Arabia—as vulnerable to lost oil revenue, import costs, and financial strain.

Yemen and possible escalation

Crooke portrays the Houthis, or Ansar Allah, as difficult to defeat through air power because of their terrain and entrenchment. He warns that a wider conflict could affect other regional actors.

He says Iran has leverage not only over shipping through Hormuz but also over Gulf energy infrastructure, data centres, and undersea communications cables.

Nuclear escalation

Asked about a hypothetical Israeli nuclear strike, Crooke says Iran would be expected to retaliate, though he does not specify exactly how or when. He warns that a major escalation could undermine the US image of military invincibility and have far-reaching consequences.

Crooke repeatedly emphasizes that these scenarios are uncertain and that he cannot predict whether Trump will strike. His broader conclusion is that the risks cannot be understood as an isolated Iran crisis: he sees them as part of a prolonged contest involving regional conflicts, economic pressure, and competing visions of global order.

Presenters and contributors

• Alastair Crooke — Guest and analyst
• Interviewer/presenter — Unnamed in the subtitles
• Ashley Crooke — Mentioned as a contributor to Alastair Crooke’s Substack; not a speaker in the interview