REPUBLICANS TURN ON EACH OTHER AFTER TRUMP'S MIDTERM DEFEAT KILLS MAGA – w/ Tim Miller

Summary

Brandon Wert and Tim Miller discuss the political fallout from a major Republican midterm defeat and whether MAGA can survive it. Miller argues that the movement’s energy has faded and that it is too closely identified with Donald Trump to easily build a new coalition. Wert suggests some supporters may instead claim that “real MAGA” was betrayed or corrupted by Trump, tech leaders, or Israel.

Republican Party divisions

They describe a Republican Party divided over the causes of its losses. Populists blame the Iran war and the party’s closeness to Israel, while more traditional conservatives blame Trump’s conduct and the candidates he elevated. Both sides, they argue, have valid criticisms but focus on the other faction’s failures, leaving the party without a clear path forward.

The Iran conflict

The two also discuss the uncertain course of the Iran conflict. Miller says acknowledging that the war was a mistake is easier than ending it: withdrawal could involve difficult concessions and politically damaging images. They expect Trump to be unpredictable, with possibilities ranging from a frozen conflict to renewed escalation.

They speculate that Trump may be increasingly dejected and focused on personal projects, but disagree on how likely he is to step back from politics.

Election consequences

Miller argues that the election results could give Democrats a lasting structural advantage, especially in the Senate, and strengthen their ability to resist Republican policies at the state level. They point to Republican gerrymanders backfiring in North Carolina and unexpectedly close results in Florida as examples of the election’s broader consequences.

Republican leadership in 2028

Wert thinks donors may favor Marco Rubio, while Miller doubts Rubio can avoid criticism over his role in the Iran war and his shifting political positions. Miller thinks the choice may ultimately be JD Vance or someone new.

They also discuss the tech industry’s support for Trump as largely transactional, tied to policies on AI, crypto, and data centers.

Democrats’ next steps

Miller expects investigations and oversight, along with attempts at limited, broadly popular legislation such as housing measures. He predicts that ideological differences within the party will become more visible and that a future nominee will need to unite its factions.

Wert says the election felt like a release of national tension, while acknowledging that the outlook remains uncertain.

Presenters and contributors

• Brandon Wert: Host
• Tim Miller: Guest; political commentator with The Bulwark