Sprzedaż za 55 000 i zakupy za 66 000 PLN! Portfel na szczycie. Skąd wiedzieć czy jest drogo?

Finance-Focused Summary

Markets and Macro Context

• The presenter says the WIG20 closed above 4,000 points for the first time. Poland’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is around its historical average, and the Polish market’s former valuation discount to emerging markets has disappeared: it is now trading at an 11% premium.
• In his view, the Polish market is no longer an obvious bargain. He cautions against assuming that recent high-growth shares still have substantial fundamental upside, while emphasizing that this does not necessarily mean the bull market is over.
• For the S&P 500, he cites second-quarter earnings growth of just under 29% year over year, led in part by memory companies and businesses supplying data-center infrastructure. He says index gains have broadly tracked earnings growth, citing about $200 in earnings per index unit in 2023 and roughly $400 forecast by the end of 2027. On that basis, he says 9,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of 2027 would not be surprising. He sees the market as closer to undervalued than in a bubble, while acknowledging that forecasts are not guarantees.
• He warns that trying to avoid every crash can cost investors more than enduring a downturn. He also says a prolonged rally could end in euphoria, potentially leaving new investors buying at high valuations.

Valuation and Portfolio Approach

• His preferred valuation reference is price-to-forward earnings. He generally considers a company attractive if it could reach a forward P/E of about 10 relatively quickly, with credible scope for further growth.
• He recommends using explicit profit assumptions and avoiding euphoria. For quality businesses with attractive long-term prospects but already optimistic near-term valuations, he may continue holding rather than selling—but would not necessarily add to the position.
• He favors companies whose growth is driven by expanding operations rather than cyclical macro conditions. He plans to focus broadly on mWIG40 companies, potentially moving to smaller companies if the market rises further.
• He wants to build a base of quality, fundamentally growing companies that could hold up better in a bear market before considering smaller businesses. His preferred near-term market outcome would be a period of sideways prices while company earnings catch up.
• He identifies XTB, Digital Network, and possibly Synektik as companies approaching a zone where valuations leave less margin of safety. For XTB, he sees too little margin of safety or 12-month upside to buy at current levels.

Transactions Discussed

• Sold: The full position in Toya, for an approximately 25% profit. The presenter remained unsure about the sale because he considers the company cheap and expects results to improve. Factors in the decision included shipping disruption related to the war in Iran, Chinese e-commerce competition, and a less supportive zloty.
• Bought: 138 shares of Passus, a small increase ahead of second-quarter results expected on September 3. He expects the results to benefit from delayed contracts, but says his core thesis is continued organic growth and increased cybersecurity tender activity.
• Bought: 284 shares of Asbis at approximately PLN 111.50, for around PLN 31,600.
• Bought: 61 shares of Synektik at PLN 365, for around PLN 22,000.
• The video title summarizes the activity as approximately PLN 55,000 sold and PLN 66,000 bought.

Company Commentary

XTB

• The presenter says XTB historically traded at about 10–11 times forecast earnings, when the market expected roughly PLN 1 billion in profit and valued the company at around PLN 10–11 billion.
• After a strong first half, its capitalization was around PLN 20 billion. XTB reported about PLN 1 billion in first-half profit, but the presenter considers PLN 2 billion for the full year unlikely, estimating PLN 1.5–1.6 billion instead. He notes that first-half market volatility was exceptional.
• The market may now be pricing in a more optimistic two-to-three-year outlook. The CEO reportedly expects quarterly profit of PLN 500 million to become standard over the next five years. The presenter considers the valuation potentially justifiable over time, but says he would not buy at the current price because the margin of safety is insufficient.

Asbis

• Second-quarter revenue rose a record 79% year over year, and net profit rose 266%. First-half net profit was reportedly already 30% above the prior full-year total.
• First-half revenue was approximately PLN 3 billion, with net profit around PLN 80 million. The cited Ipopema full-year forecast is PLN 6.5 billion in revenue and PLN 170 million in net profit. The business is seasonal, with its strongest period in the fourth quarter.
• Gross margin fell to 7% from more than 8% in the first quarter. Management reportedly described 7% as a likely floor, with margins expected to be somewhat higher in subsequent quarters.
• Growth drivers include Apple products and data-center servers. Server sales rose 285% year over year, and the presenter says 80% of server sales are Nvidia products. Asbis has expanded Apple operations into 14 Northwest African countries.
• Management warned that third-quarter revenue could be lower than in the second quarter because of the holiday period. The presenter sees this year’s P/E at a little above 10 at his purchase price and expects stronger growth than analysts’ 10–15% revenue-growth assumptions. He cites forecasts of revenue growth of 32% in 2027 and a further 24% in 2028, partly linked to hyperscaler capital expenditure.
• He says he would consider selling some or all of the position if the valuation became excessive relative to future earnings growth.

Synektik

• After three quarters of its shifted financial year, net profit was up 61% year over year to PLN 138 million, including PLN 55 million in the third quarter. The presenter sees roughly PLN 180–185 million as a plausible full-year result.
• The company had sold 28 Da Vinci robots after three quarters. An earlier full-year estimate of about 356 robots was reportedly lowered by mBank to 323 following management comments. Management expects fewer sales in Poland to be partly offset by sales in the Baltic states and Ukraine; the presenter says 30 robots next year would be a positive surprise.
• He expects growth to slow as Polish KPO funding runs out, but notes that a new large tranche of EU hospital-robotization funding is expected from 2028. He emphasizes that recurring, higher-margin service procedures and consumables—not just robot sales—are important to profits.
• His working assumption is 15–20% profit growth next year, to above PLN 200 million. At a market capitalization of around PLN 3 billion, he uses illustrative net-profit assumptions of PLN 185 million this year, PLN 210 million next year, and PLN 280 million in 2028. He considers the valuation a little above 10 times earnings over the next two years.
• Synektik’s Edison robot received EU certification for liver-cancer treatment. The presenter also mentions potential revenue from hospital software. He says he may slow further purchases but could reconsider if the shares fell 10–15% without a change in forecasts.

Portfolio Performance and Risk

• Public portfolio value: approximately PLN 2,323,000; reported profit: about PLN 1,162,000.
• Over 3 years and 3 months, regularly contributed capital had doubled. The reported time-weighted return is 210%, equivalent to tripling the initial capital if it had all been invested at the start. The presenter gives an average annual return of 41%, versus a long-term project assumption of 15%, and attributes much of the strong result to the bull market.
• Return since the start of 2026: 55%, with portfolio value up about PLN 800,000 since January. The presenter says the portfolio has continued to outperform US indices, but that sustained outperformance must be demonstrated over the long term.
• The five largest holdings account for 82.5% of the portfolio, a concentration level he had aimed for. He expects to hold roughly 7–8 companies over the long run. Asbis rose to about 10% of the portfolio after purchases. Four of the five largest holdings account for most of the portfolio’s gains.
• He notes that portfolio size can make illiquid shares difficult to buy and sell. He also observes that a 50% drawdown from the total portfolio value would erase the reported profit.

Disclosures and Cautions

• The presenter identifies XTB as a channel partner, says he uses it himself, and recommends its brokerage account. He also identifies Portal Analiz as a content partner.
• He says active investing requires substantial work and that there are no shortcuts. For many investors, he says, a mostly ETF portfolio with no paid research may be the better choice.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.

Presenter and Sources

• Presenter: Host of the Zawód Inwestor channel; no personal name is given in the subtitles.
• Sources cited: Q News; company reports and management comments; forecasts attributed to Ipopema and mBank; the Portal Analiz community, including Paweł Malik; and S&P 500 earnings forecasts.