Ryzyko rośnie, a portfel bije rekordy. Które sektory na dalszą hossę? Digital, Asbis, Newag i inni.

Summary

The host reviews a public Polish-equity portfolio that has recently reached record levels. He weighs the possibility of further bull-market gains against the risk of a future bear market. He attributes the portfolio’s results partly to selecting companies with improving earnings or favorable sector trends, but stresses that recent performance should not be expected to repeat.

Markets and macroeconomic backdrop

• The host describes escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and threats to oil supply routes. He says energy prices rose sharply, particularly in Europe, increasing inflation risk.
• In his view, higher inflation could put upward pressure on interest rates. He also speculates that markets had priced in a U.S. rate hike and geopolitical risk before the decision, helping explain a subsequent rebound.
• He says the S&P 500 had been relatively flat while earnings forecasts rose, making its valuation lower than after the outbreak of the Iran conflict and below its five-year average. He also says forecasts for Nvidia had not been cut.
• On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, he sees support from public spending, EU programs, and investment in areas such as rail, cybersecurity, and IT equipment. He remains cautious about companies exposed to sudden cost increases while oil prices are high.
• Individual-company analysis is much more important to his decisions than macroeconomic forecasts.

Investment framework and risk management

• Analyst-upside indicator: The host describes comparing a company’s position within its own historical analyst “upside” range while checking whether revenue and earnings forecasts are maintained or raised. He says a backtest of 12 S&P 500 companies over 10 years found that higher scores were associated with about 3.5 percentage points more return per year on average. He cautions against relying on price targets alone; the aim is to use an indicator that does not harm portfolio performance.
• Portfolio construction: He is trying to benefit from the bull market while building a portfolio he believes could hold up relatively well in a bear market. He favors companies whose results may be resilient in a recession and is adding to other positions rather than trimming Digital Network, despite its large weight.
• He expects Synektik and XTB to perform better than the market in a possible downturn, and says Synektik’s results may be relatively resilient during a recession.
• He cautions that the portfolio’s high returns reflect a favorable market and successful stock selection, and are not repeatable or guaranteed.

Companies and sectors discussed

• ASBIS (ASB): Revenue rose 91% year over year in August, despite management having signaled a possible Q3 slowdown. The host says smartphones—particularly Apple products—and servers are key growth drivers. He estimates that Nvidia products account for 80% of server-category revenue. His investment thesis anticipates further growth from Nvidia’s Vera Rubin accelerator, which he says may be about five times as efficient as Blackwell, with twice the production cost. He considers the valuation demanding, appearing to assume 30–40% revenue growth next year and roughly PLN 1 billion of profit in 2027. He plans to hold while momentum remains strong but may reallocate if growth slows.
• Digital Network (DIG), digital out-of-home advertising: The host says Polish DOOH advertising spending grew 32% year over year. He cites a viral screen installation, a planned additional large Warsaw screen, and expansion to railway stations and cities with over 100,000 residents. Foreign expansion is a longer-term possibility, perhaps two to four years away. He cites a Wood & Company forecast of around PLN 120 million net profit in 2028. At roughly 30× forecast 2026 earnings, he considers the valuation high. He is neither buying more nor selling, partly because the position already occupies 27% of the portfolio. He warns that a risk materializing could cause a significant fall.
• Newag (NWG), rail: The weak Q1 was attributed to the timing of vehicle deliveries and fixed costs; Q2 more than recovered the shortfall. General and administrative expenses increased just 3.2% year over year. The host says the order book may be full through 2030 or 2031 and mentions a potential PLN 800 million train tender for the Katowice area—comparable with Newag’s roughly PLN 750 million Q2 revenue. He also notes the company’s efforts to find export markets.
• AB (ABE), IT hardware distribution: The host expects solid quarters, citing replacement demand for hardware and cybersecurity investment. AB is described as a major Apple distributor in Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia, though he does not expect growth comparable to ASBIS’s.
• Synektik (SNT): The host says he recently added to the position, viewing it as relatively resilient in a recession. The purchase amount reported in the transcript for 30 shares appears inconsistent, so the amount is unclear.
• Cyber_Folks (CBF): The host says management share purchases are a positive signal and that the market is speculating about a possible takeover. He is waiting rather than acting on that speculation.
• Passus (PSW): The host says recent gains may reflect an investment fund entering the company; this is presented as speculation.
• XTB (XTB): Mentioned as a holding the host expects could outperform the market in a bear market.
• Sectors and themes: Rail, cybersecurity, IT hardware distribution, DOOH advertising, banks, semiconductors, defense, and space-related businesses. The host argues that public and private investment may support some Polish companies, while warning that smaller industrial and construction businesses may be more exposed to higher energy costs.

Portfolio results and activity

• The portfolio reportedly gained 109% over the previous 12 months, 77% year to date, and 50% in the previous calendar year.
• Since the previous episode, portfolio profit increased by about PLN 378,000; over the past year, it increased by about PLN 1.3 million.
• The host reports a portfolio value of about PLN 2.7 million, with roughly PLN 1.5 million profit on just under PLN 1.2 million of contributions. He gives a time-weighted return of about 250% over three years and five months, equivalent to approximately 45% annualized.
• He says Digital Network is responsible for much of the recent gain. His shares have a stated cost basis of about PLN 142,000 and a current value of about PLN 730,000. He began buying around PLN 37.40 roughly two years earlier.
• He also describes substantially increasing his ASBIS position after first buying at roughly PLN 20–25 and later adding shares at an average of about PLN 100.
• Recent purchases included additional Synektik shares and about PLN 1,700 of Cyber_Folks. The Synektik purchase amount in the subtitles is unclear.
• The host says the portfolio is ahead of the WIG, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 by approximately 100, less than 150, and 180 percentage points, respectively. He wants to continue demonstrating a repeatable advantage over the S&P 500.

Disclosures and cautions

• The host identifies XTB as a channel partner and says he uses its account. He mentions no commission on purchases up to EUR 100,000 of monthly turnover and notes that financial instruments carry risk.
• He recommends Portal Analiz as a paid information resource, quoting a cost of about PLN 300 per year, but says it is optional.
• No explicit “not financial advice” statement appears in the subtitles. The host does warn that the portfolio’s past performance should not be treated as repeatable or guaranteed.

Instruments and entities mentioned

• Shares: Digital Network (DIG), ASBIS (ASB), Newag (NWG), AB (ABE), Synektik (SNT), Cyber_Folks (CBF), Passus (PSW), XTB (XTB), Nvidia (NVDA), and Apple (AAPL).
• Indices and markets: S&P 500, WIG, WIG 20, and Nasdaq.
• Other assets and themes: Oil and energy resources; semiconductor products and accelerators, including Nvidia’s Blackwell and Vera Rubin; rail vehicles; cybersecurity; IT hardware; and digital out-of-home advertising.

Presenter and sources

• Presenter: The unnamed host of the Zawód Inwestor channel.
• Sources mentioned: Company reports and earnings materials; Wood & Company; Matstar’s chart on Portal Analiz; Portal Analiz; and MyFund portfolio data.