CALMA URGENTE! - Eleições ao Vivo. Resultados, Saldos e Desabafos.

Summary

The presenters react to a bleak first-round result: Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead of Lula by roughly two percentage points, or fewer than three million votes, setting up a runoff in three weeks. They stress that the gap is narrow enough to overcome, but that the right has also made major gains in Congress and the Senate. They warn that a Bolsonaro-aligned government could further weaken democratic institutions, including through appointments to the Supreme Court.

The discussion frames the result as more than a close presidential contest. Bruno argues that it reflects a deeper cultural and political shift: the far right has gained ground in language, identity, and public life. The group notes that, unlike the celebrations after Jair Bolsonaro’s 2018 victory, this result appeared subdued in the streets. They interpret that quiet as evidence that some voters may be choosing Flávio less out of enthusiasm for his program than from opposition to Lula and the political camp he represents. They also disagree over how well voters know Flávio, but see persuadable voters as crucial.

The presenters criticize the Lula campaign’s apparent complacency, weak street presence, and assumption that victory was assured. They also fault the mainstream media for inadequate scrutiny of Flávio. They argue that exposing his record and associations still matters, but campaigning should not rely on facts and denunciations alone: voters are influenced by identity, values, and emotional connection, and repeated scandals have not substantially shifted polling.

They identify several possible routes to a runoff victory:

• Mobilize abstainers. About 33 million people did not vote in the first round—around 21% of the electorate. The presenters say Lula’s lower-income supporters and older voters are especially important to reach, and urge people to help eligible voters get to the polls.
• Reach supporters of smaller candidates and undecided voters. Voters for Augusto Curi may be receptive to appeals for calm and an end to political turmoil. For voters concerned about national sovereignty, the presenters point to the risk of Flávio yielding to U.S. demands. They also recommend raising questions about Flávio’s credibility, questionable associations, and lack of significant achievements.
• Campaign differently. Rather than reflexively repeating familiar slogans or assuming every Bolsonaro voter is unreachable, they advocate targeted outreach, listening, personal conversations, humor, and collective organizing in the streets. They say committed extremists are not worth the energy, but voters are more complex than the politicians they support.

The group also criticizes Brazil’s election format: voters must choose multiple candidates at once, making legislative races easy to overlook and results harder to connect to individual choices. They conclude that the next three weeks require sustained, disciplined action. The result remains uncertain, and the stakes extend beyond the presidency.

Presenters and Contributors

• Alessandra Orofino
• Bruno Torturra
• Gregório Duvivier
• Luiza Miguel, journalist and referenced contributor