US Ukraine Row Escalates Trump: Zelensky Should Go UK/EU Back Zelensky; Russia Strikes Kiev Blackout

Summary

US–Russia Agreement and Political Dispute

Alexander Mercouris argues that the backlash to a reported US–Russia agreement on diesel and Russian oil products is out of proportion to its likely impact. He says the quantities involved are modest, notes precedents for temporary US licenses allowing trade in Russian energy products, and rejects claims that the agreement amounts to a major sanctions rollback or a betrayal of Ukraine. In his view, the United States was entitled to make a commercial arrangement with Russia. He also says Washington had been trying, unsuccessfully, to persuade Kyiv to take steps that could restart negotiations.

The agreement has sharpened the public dispute between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump criticized Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy facilities, said Zelensky had rejected opportunities for a deal, and suggested Ukraine consider a different leader. Mercouris describes Trump’s remarks as relatively moderate. He says some Ukrainians share the view that Zelensky should step aside, particularly given his refusal to hold elections and insistence on negotiating only on his terms. Mercouris argues that Zelensky remains in power chiefly because European leaders continue to support him, despite what Mercouris sees as declining domestic popularity.

Mercouris says Elon Musk’s support for Trump could make Ukrainian access to Starlink’s military capabilities less likely. However, he sees no sign that Ukraine will be cut off from Starlink altogether or from US intelligence support. He considers the battlefield more consequential than the political dispute.

Air Campaign and Drone Capabilities

Mercouris reports further Russian drone attacks on Kyiv and Odesa, alongside recurring power outages in Kyiv. He says Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, has advised residents to consider leaving temporarily for the winter, though Mercouris stresses that this is not an evacuation order. He believes Russia is increasingly targeting power lines and substations outside the capital, making some attacks less visible while worsening the city’s energy instability. He also discusses reports of strikes on buildings used by Ukraine’s SBU security service and speculates about how Russian drones are being guided.

A major theme is Russia’s growing drone capability. Citing analysis from the blog Events in Ukraine, Mercouris says Russia is preparing a domestically made jet engine for its Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones, potentially making them faster than Ukrainian interceptor drones. He points to former Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s assessment that Russia has reached at least parity with Ukraine in drone technology and can draw on a much larger industrial base.

Mercouris also discusses claims that Russian drones are gaining terrain-following and AI-assisted target recognition, which could make jamming less effective. He expresses concern about increasingly autonomous weapons, while describing them as part of the future of warfare.

He says Ukraine’s air defenses are under growing strain, citing reports that Ukrainian aircraft are using old Soviet-era R-60 air-to-air missiles against drones. He also relays complaints from Azov-linked forces about a shortage of Ukrainian FPV-drone operators. Mercouris argues that funding has been directed toward Fire Point’s long-range strike projects rather than battlefield FPV drones, and suggests political and financial interests may help explain that allocation.

Ground Developments

Mercouris says Russian forces are close to completing the capture of the Kharkiv-area “cauldron” and may then advance toward Velykyi Burluk and further south. He argues that Ukraine’s continued refusal to withdraw from exposed positions has led to unnecessary losses. He describes the Ukrainian operation around Lyman as stalled and predicts that a Russian advance from the north could make it increasingly untenable.

He also says Russian forces are close to capturing Dobropillia, which he views as a significant development that could enable Russia to threaten the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk area from the west. Combined with a possible Russian advance from the north, this could create a pincer around Ukrainian forces in the area. Mercouris cites reports estimating as many as 70,000 Ukrainian troops there, while presenting the scale and consequences of a potential encirclement as a developing risk rather than a completed event.

US Political Outlook

Mercouris argues that Trump’s ability to influence the Ukraine conflict may diminish after the US midterm elections, which he predicts could weaken Trump’s position in Congress. He expects Trump to focus more on Iran and the Middle East, noting Putin’s reported offer to help with diplomacy and reports of Houthi missile strikes reaching Riyadh.

Mercouris concludes that Trump has not managed to pressure Kyiv into making concessions and may no longer have the political capacity to secure a Ukraine settlement.

Presenters and Contributors

• Alexander Mercouris — Presenter.
• Peter of Events in Ukraine — Cited as a source of analysis; not an on-air participant.