John Feneck: Gold, Silver Prices Break Support, What Happens Now?

Summary

John Feneck said gold and silver had broken important chart support, increasing the risk of further near-term declines. He viewed elections, Federal Reserve policy, labor-market data, inflation, and tax-loss selling as key near-term drivers. His broader advice was to manage risk, avoid chasing sharp rallies, and evaluate companies’ finances, milestones, and management rather than relying on commodity-price forecasts alone.

Precious metals and market outlook

• Gold: Gold had fallen below $4,000 and $3,900, breaking a prior low and support near $3,941. Feneck said the break was technically concerning but not necessarily a sign of a long-term collapse. He identified about $3,500 as a possible “bottom-bottom” level. To his knowledge, Goldman Sachs had not withdrawn its $4,900 year-end forecast, though he called reaching that level from around $3,900 in seven weeks a “tall order.”
• Silver: Feneck cited $45–$50 as a level to watch and said he would consider buying again in that range. He was staying on the sidelines around the election until he saw the market’s reaction, and put a possible bottom in the high $30s. Silver had reached about $121 in Q1, then fallen nearly 60% from its peak. Feneck said he had sold about 20% of his silver holdings above $100 in Q1 and wished he had sold more.
• Feneck characterized silver as highly volatile and said its price action suggested the rally to $121 had been a blow-off top. He alleged that manipulation and collusion had affected silver trading; this was his claim, not an independently established finding in the interview.
• Gold and silver miners: Feneck argued that mining equities can offer greater upside sensitivity than the metals themselves. For example, he said a move in silver from $50 to $60 would equal a 20% gain in the metal, while a junior silver stock might gain 40–50%. He cited roughly two to three times leverage to metal-price moves as a general pattern, while emphasizing that miners can also fall further.
• GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF): Feneck described $68–$70 as support to watch. GDX had recently bounced near $69 and risen to about $105.50 by late August; it was around $78 during the interview. If support at $68–$70 failed, he advised looking to longer-term charts for the next support levels. He noted that major holdings Newmont and Agnico Eagle had reported strong earnings, but said investors were focused on macroeconomic and political uncertainty.

Macro and broader-market risks

• Elections: Feneck said a Republican loss of both the House and Senate could bring more near-term downside for gold, silver, and mining stocks, and that he did not believe all election risk was priced in. Conversely, he thought a Republican win in either chamber could lift the broad market. Longer term, he said political and geopolitical uncertainty tends to support precious metals.
• Federal Reserve and inflation: The Fed had left rates unchanged. Feneck cited a 74% probability—as of the prior Fed meeting—of a 25-basis-point hike on December 9, and thought the odds remained elevated. He said the decision would depend in part on nonfarm payrolls (November 6) and CPI (November 10). He viewed one additional hike as largely priced in, but warned that another four hikes the following year, or about 100 basis points, could trigger a broad-market decline of 20% or more.
• Market concentration and volatility: Feneck said S&P 500 gains were being driven by a narrow group of stocks, creating concentration risk for index and mutual-fund investors, especially retirees heavily exposed to technology and AI. He compared the narrow market breadth with 2008–09 and warned that algorithm-driven markets can move too quickly for investors to react without a plan.
• He cited Intel (INTC) falling 28% in one day and Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) falling roughly 12–13% after earnings. Amazon (AMZN) was up only about 5% year to date at the time, which he compared with money-market yields of around 5%. He argued that investors should question the compensation they receive for taking equity risk.
• Risk management: Feneck cautioned investors against allocating too much to mining shares if their risk tolerance is limited. He noted that much household wealth is held in 401(k)s, 403(b)s, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq—not mining stocks. He also flagged tax-loss selling as a possible source of further pressure on the sector.

Investing approach and company-selection framework

Feneck described the following general process:

• Watch key support and resistance levels in metals and mining ETFs, and reassess when support breaks.
• Avoid committing capital around major events until the outcome and market reaction are clearer. He said he was not buying on election day.
• Consider buying selectively when prices are depressed rather than chasing rallies; he and partner Don Durrett call this “buying to the bottom.”
• Compare direct metal exposure with mining equities while recognizing miners’ greater volatility and potential downside.
• Review company cash flow, financing needs, dilution risk, production plans, permits, economic studies, and drilling results.
• Check whether management is meeting stated timelines and whether insiders are buying shares in the open market. Feneck said insider buying can be encouraging, but is not by itself a reason to buy.
• Keep position sizes aligned with personal risk tolerance and seek help if unable to manage volatility. Feneck said his service does not tell clients specifically to buy or sell; it provides holdings, activity, and timely commentary.

Companies and instruments mentioned

Gold and silver

• White Gold (WGO, Canada; described as WHG/WHGF in the US): Feneck said the company had identified more than 3 million ounces of gold, held a large land package with multiple Yukon properties, and was an advanced-stage company rather than a purely early-stage explorer. He also cited a possible critical-minerals spin-off in the coming weeks. He said the stock’s price action had been weak since September.
• Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG): At about US$0.89, Feneck said it might be a takeover candidate the following year. He cited a past move from around $4 to $2.47 after a fast-track permitting development, and a separate Nevada project with 4.3 million ounces of gold. He argued the company could benefit from higher gold prices or a potential acquisition; these were his views, not confirmed outcomes.
• Opawica Explorations (OPW, Canada; OPWF in the US): The company was in a financing, which Feneck said was weighing on the stock. He highlighted its Arrowhead property’s proximity to Agnico Eagle’s LaRonde mine and said the company planned more drilling.
• Norsemont Mining (NOM, Canada; NRRSF in the US): Investors were awaiting a permit, which the company had indicated could arrive in the first half of the following year, and a PEA. Feneck said he believed the permit was achievable but acknowledged permitting was a risk.
• Agnico Eagle, Barrick, and Newmont: These were mentioned as large gold-mining companies. Agnico Eagle was Feneck’s preferred major. He said Agnico Eagle and Newmont had reported strong earnings.

Critical minerals

• Tungsten: Feneck said the spot price had risen from about 920 per ton on January 1 to more than 2,700. He cited China’s estimated 81% share of global production and said Chinese output was down year over year. He expected supply constraints to persist and argued that North America should develop self-sufficiency. The subtitles do not specify the currency or exact price unit.
• Western Star Resources (WSR, Canada; WSRIF in the US): The company had three US projects and one Canadian gold project, with tungsten now its main focus. Feneck described a 27-hole drilling program across two properties, with a few additional holes at a third, and said results were expected in January or February. He encouraged investors to assess the company’s progress and buy only at prices they considered attractive.
• Denarius Metals (DME, Canada; DNRF in the US): Feneck said debenture news in late July had hurt the stock, which he described as having fallen to US$0.29 before recovering to around US$0.36. It had traded above US$0.50 during the August rally. He said Spanish production was expected to contribute in the first quarter of the following year. Revenue was $1.7 million the prior year; the company was targeting $24 million for the current year, up from an earlier figure of $20 million. Feneck estimated revenue could reach $44–48 million the next year. He argued that increased revenue could reduce the need for further dilution. These were estimates and company targets, not guaranteed results.
• Power Metallic Mines (PNPN, Canada; PNPNF in the US): Feneck said its mineral-reserve estimate had disappointed investors, with a PEA expected the following year. He cited copper drill results of about 8–14% copper, which he considered exceptionally high grade, and said the company had 16 billionaires among its shareholders. He also highlighted CEO and insider open-market purchases as a positive, while cautioning that insider buying alone is not a sufficient investment rationale.
• Canadian Uranium (CU, Canada; CANUF in the US): Feneck cited four Canadian projects, a tight share structure, and the company’s cash position. He said Canada’s Athabasca Basin was his preferred uranium jurisdiction.
• Green Canada Uranium (GCU, Canada): Feneck described the company as led by a geologist with 40 years’ experience and said its first drill result was positive. The transcript says it did not yet have a US ticker.

Oil and gas

• BluEnergies (BLU, Canada; BLUGF in the US): Feneck discussed its deepwater oil-and-gas activity in Liberia, noting that major companies including Exxon, Shell, and BP had entered the surrounding area. He said the stock was around US$1.50, near support, and could fall further. The company had raised $21 million in July.
• Angkor Resources (ANK, Canada; ANKOF in the US): Feneck cited a 30-year oil lease in Asia and said the company might seek a partner to develop it. He also noted gold and copper exploration. He said the stock had risen from around US$0.10–$0.11 when he first mentioned it to about US$0.26, but suggested the company still needed to raise some money.

Disclosures and cautions

Feneck disclosed that silver had been his largest holding and that he had sold about 20% of it above $100 in Q1. He discussed companies and securities he or his partners held or followed, and promoted Feneck Consulting’s paid, real-time email service. He said the service does not issue direct buy/sell instructions. No explicit “not financial advice” statement appeared in the subtitles.

Presenters and sources

• Charlotte Mloud, Investing News — interviewer and presenter.
• John Feneck, Feneck Consulting — guest; referred to partner Don Durrett in discussing the investment approach.