Это линия ближайшего десятилетия, дальше планировать нельзя! Владимир Лепехин

Summary

Vladimir Lepekhin argues that Russia should not mistake short-term gestures from the United States for a durable change in policy. He describes Donald Trump as a transactional politician constrained by voters, Congress, and domestic politics. In Lepekhin’s view, Trump could present a deal—such as a hypothetical Russian diesel supply—as a favor and use it to seek further concessions. He argues that US strategy toward Russia is shaped by longer-term interests and would persist regardless of who holds the presidency.

Lepekhin says the next few years, particularly the period up to 2028, are unusually uncertain, making long-range forecasts unreliable. He frames this period as a struggle over global influence, with a possible US–China confrontation ahead. He criticizes Russia’s leadership for lacking a coherent long-term strategy, arguing that it tries to accommodate countries including the US, China, Turkey, and India without clearly defining its own national interests.

He also sees Europe as facing political and economic disorientation. He attributes the rise of new political forces in countries such as Germany, France, and Britain to social changes, including migration, and argues that established left- and right-wing movements have failed to respond. He rejects the idea that unrest or the growth of right-wing parties in Europe automatically benefits Russia, saying that Russia has little influence over these developments and lacks effective political and ideological networks abroad.

A central theme is Lepekhin’s distinction between “stability” and development. He argues that the official emphasis on stability preserves Russia’s dependent position in the global economy, while the country needs faster modernization and greater economic and political sovereignty. He considers reliance on resource exports, loans, aid, and military support insufficient foundations for lasting international influence.

Lepekhin calls for a clearly articulated national and civilizational ideology, which he distinguishes from what he regards as bureaucratic state ideology. He criticizes the current political system as imitative and unaccountable, and says state institutions have effectively been privatized or subordinated to oligarchic interests. He also argues that Russia’s traditional values have been formulated inconsistently and combined with ideas that do not reflect a coherent national outlook.

To illustrate what he sees as the contrast between effective planning and current implementation failures, Lepekhin invokes Soviet-era wartime industrial mobilization, including the relocation of aircraft factories to Samara. He says current projects often rely on funding applications that invite inflated costs and kickbacks, rather than clear plans, coordination, and accountability.

His proposed direction is a gradual move toward sovereignty by:

• Identifying and reducing Russia’s dependence on foreign markets, transit routes, and external pricing.
• Rebuilding accountable state institutions.
• Changing economic, political, and legal arrangements.

He argues that this would require a post-capitalist model, not a literal restoration of the Soviet Union, while selectively drawing on useful Soviet-era practices such as controls over foreign trade and currency. He presents these ideas as a broad reform agenda rather than a detailed, immediate program.

Presenter and Contributor

• Vladimir Lepekhin — Speaker and commentator identified in the video title.