🔴 They Predicted Gold & Silver's Collapse—Here's What Comes NEXT | Kevin Wadsworth & Patrick Karim

Context / Thesis

Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Kareem (Northstar) frame current gold and silver action as a deep, time-consuming correction rather than a clean “V-shape” bottom. They emphasize:

• Ratio charts (e.g., metals vs stocks)
• Rising bond yields as key macro drivers

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Key Instruments & Assets Mentioned

Precious metals & benchmarks

• Gold (XAU)
  • “Cup and handle” breakout, followed by a corrective phase
• Silver (XAG)
  • “Cup and handle” plus broader consolidation/basing behavior
• 10-year Treasury yields (U.S. 10Y)
• S&P / S&P 500 (used in “gold to S&P” comparisons)
• Dow Jones / DJI (explicitly referenced vs silver)

Other commodities / related themes

• Platinum
• Uranium and uranium miners
  • Mentions suggest Cameco (likely CCJ), with some subtitle transcription quirks
• Palladium
• Copper
• Aluminum / steel / iron
• Oil / energy stocks
  • Oil around $80–$85 after dropping from >$100
• Soft commodities: coffee, cocoa

ETFs / tickers

• No explicit ETF tickers were stated in the subtitles.

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Gold: Levels, Structure, and Timing (Technical Framework)

Major moves cited

• Gold previously rallied:
  • Breakout toward ~$2,000
  • Run-up to about ~$5,600
• Correction magnitude/expectation:
  • They previously warned of a “large and time-consuming correction”
  • Expected drop on the order of ~20% to 35% (not merely ~10%)

Near-term support zone & key levels

• Price pulled back toward ~$3,800
• Psychological level: $4,000
  • If $4,000 breaks, they cite possible support around:
    • ~$3,760
    • then ~$3,500–$3,450 (horizontal support)

Longer-term trend anchor

• 3-year moving average (monthly chart) around ~$3,128 (described as rising)

Timeframe / candlestick caution

• They argue the correction could last “another couple of candles” on a 6-month chart
• They reference a historically similar “nasty” 6-month candle pattern (example mentioned: 2021, and analogy around 2013)
• Resolution could take roughly 6–12 months, potentially extending toward end of this year / start of next year

Trading/risk framework (by participant type)

Trader

• Use pre-set profit limit and pre-set stop-loss at entry
• Exit when either threshold is hit

Investor

• Enter on breakouts through clear resistance and confirmation via moving averages/indicators
• Exit when the trend breaks down

Long-horizon / “stacker” (10+ years)

• Accumulate/add rather than necessarily exiting on a 30% decline
• Framed as positioned for a “bull era” thesis

Explicit risk control recommendation

• Place a stop-loss just below the shaded red zone (gold)
• If price breaks below, odds shift toward materially lower prices (down to roughly ~$3,700 and possibly ~$3,450)

Evidence they want before “confident” trading

• They caution you cannot confidently trade/add until evidence appears:
  • On daily, rolling over into weekly and monthly confirmation
• A potential falling wedge on the daily chart was mentioned as probabilistic, not certain

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Silver: Key Levels & What Would Confirm a Bottom (Technical Framework)

Support / bounce area

• Silver has been bouncing on ~$55 to $57 for “a couple of weeks”
• They do not call this a confirmed bottom—only active interaction with support

If support fails

• If $55–$57 fails, they suggest silver could drop into the low-to-mid $40s

Evidence needed for turnaround (explicit trigger)

• On an 8-hour time frame, they want a reclaim:
  • Back above ~ $64
• $64 is referenced repeatedly as prior support

Skepticism toward “bottom picking”

• Pat strongly argues against trying to “catch the bottom” because:
  • The largest correction occurs near peak-to-low
  • Larger breakout patterns require multiple time periods
  • Silver may need more time before a meaningful breakout (not just the first bounce)

Longer-term relative highs / timing uncertainty

• They discuss the need for silver to eventually challenge higher monthly defined all-time highs
• The downside narrative is that silver may still be “on the way down”
• One context suggests timing could stretch out toward up to 2029

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Ratio / Macro: How Yields & Stocks Are Linked to Precious Metals

Gold vs S&P (and broader markets)

• They highlight a gold-to-S&P relationship
  • A resistance break “morphed” into a new dynamic after 10–12 years
• They argue metals are in a technically tricky zone:
  • If the “arc/dome” ratio support line breaks below a red line:
    • Not necessarily the end of the precious-metals bull thesis
    • But a “put on hiatus / something off” signal

Silver vs Dow / “stocks vs silver”

• Concept: silver tends to do well after stock-market drawdowns via capital rotation
• Current implication: if the ratio indicates silver isn’t outperforming enough,
  • silver may not be the best relative vehicle until ratio thresholds break

Explicit risk/reward threshold concept

• A declining “red line” on ratio charts is framed as the key condition:
  • When/if the ratio crosses below that line, it becomes a lower-risk, higher-reward precious-metals opportunity later

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Key Macro Numbers & Narrative (Yields / Debt Dynamics)

Yields (central macro input)

• They argue 10-year yields are breaking upward again
• Pattern described:
  • A ~40+ year descending expanding wedge
  • A false breakdown
  • An upside breakout in 2022
• They claim yields are not purely Fed-controlled:
  • Market dynamics determine yields; the Fed reacts

Debt-to-GDP link

• Yield direction is tied to debt dynamics
• Their expectation:
  • As yields rise, debt-to-GDP must fall to be mathematically accommodated
• Figures cited:
  • Debt-to-GDP peaked around ~130%
  • Current figures around ~129%, possibly nearer ~120% (subtitle ambiguity)

“Stock market floor” claim (explicit)

• They argue higher yields can put a floor under stocks (nominally) because:
  • “Destruction of purchasing power” implies investors need more fiat value to buy equities
• But the implication is nuanced:
  • If yields rise enough, stocks may underperform precious metals (described with “vomit of performance” language)

Drawdown comparison

• Equity drawdowns may not be as deep as a dot-com-style nominal drawdown (~30–40% over a decade)
• However, they still suggest meaningful long-term impact if real purchasing-power effects dominate

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Energy (Brief)

• Oil reference:
  • Surged to >$100, then fell back to ~$80–$85
• Some oil producers and energy stocks are described as doing reasonably well

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Methodology / Framework Explicitly Shared

• Technical ratio-chart approach
  • Compare:
    • Gold vs S&P
    • Silver vs Dow (DJI)
    • Gold vs Silver
  • Use ratio support/resistance breakpoints (e.g., “green line” and “red line” thresholds)
• Timeframe confirmation ladder
  • For trading confidence: wait for daily → weekly → monthly evidence
• Participant-type rules (gold)
  • Trader: pre-set take-profit + stop-loss; exit on trigger
  • Investor: enter on resistance break + trend confirmation; exit on trend break
  • Long-term stacker: accumulate through drawdowns; don’t necessarily exit on large % declines
• “Distance from moving average” stretch metric
  • Use deviation vs the 3-year moving average (and multi-decade historical behavior) to infer likely corrections
• Capital rotation thesis (relative performance)
  • Use evidence of rotation after stock drawdowns
  • Then use ratio charts to determine when rotation may reverse

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Key Cautions / Explicit Recommendations

Gold

• Do not “confident trade/add” below the key support zone
• Use stop placement below the shaded red zone

Silver

• Avoid “bottom picking” based on the first bounce
• Require higher-timeframe / 8-hour evidence
• Watch $64 reclaim as a trigger

Macro

• Don’t assume the Fed alone controls rates
• Follow the yield-driven regime shifts

Relative positioning

• They imply there may be “better” relative vehicles than silver during periods of relative underperformance (including rotating NAV into outperformers once conditions improve)

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.
• The main caution is that chart outcomes are probabilistic (they repeatedly stress uncertainty and “weight of evidence”).

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Presenters / Sources

• Danny (host / interviewer; “Capital”)
• Patrick Kareem (Northstar “Bat Charts” service)
• Kevin Wadsworth (Northstar Bat Charts service)