البروفيسور جون ميرشايمر: الواقعية البنيوية

Summary

Professor John Mearsheimer explains structural realism, an approach to international relations that holds that the structure of the international system—not primarily domestic politics or the character of individual states—shapes how states behave.

Core ideas

• The international system is anarchic: There is no higher authority to protect states if they are threatened.
• States face uncertainty and vulnerability: A state cannot be sure that another powerful state with hostile intentions will not threaten it in the future.
• Power is essential for survival: Since states cannot rely on an outside protector, they seek to become as powerful as possible. Weaker states are vulnerable to pressure or exploitation by stronger ones.
• Regional dominance offers security: Mearsheimer points to the United States, whose overwhelming power in the Western Hemisphere means Americans generally do not fear attack by neighboring countries.
• There are two kinds of realist explanations:
  • Human-nature realism, associated with Hans Morgenthau, attributes conflict to an innate human drive to seek power.
  • Structural realism, associated with Mearsheimer and Kenneth Waltz, attributes competition to the anarchic organization of the international system and the uncertainty states face.

Both approaches expect states to compete aggressively, but they explain that behavior differently.

The role of theory

Mearsheimer argues that theories are most valuable when they explain major questions—especially war and peace—and significant historical events. He favors parsimonious theories: relatively simple frameworks that use a limited number of factors to explain important outcomes. He says realism does not provide perfect answers, but it helps explain major international events and dynamics.

Mearsheimer’s forecast about China

Mearsheimer argues that if China continues to grow economically, it will likely convert that wealth into military power and seek regional dominance in Asia, much as the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere. He says China’s past experience of weakness and foreign intervention would reinforce its desire to become powerful.

He predicts that:

• The United States will resist China becoming the dominant power in Asia.
• China’s neighbors—including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, India, and Russia—will also oppose Chinese dominance.
• These states are likely to work with the United States to contain China, producing intense security competition.
• For these reasons, he answers no to the question of whether China can rise peacefully.

Mearsheimer presents this as a prediction based on his theory, while stressing that predictions about the future require a theoretical framework.

Speakers and sources

• John Mearsheimer — presents his views on structural realism and China’s rise.
• Hans Morgenthau — cited as a prominent representative of human-nature realism.
• Kenneth Waltz — cited as a structural realist.