Fintables Aylık Sohbetler Ekim 2026 | Yunus Şahin, Yaşar Yıldırım

Summary

The discussion focused on the fallout from Turkish investment-fund liquidations and their effects on Borsa Istanbul, investor confidence, liquidity, and sector prospects.

Fund liquidations and market impact

• The speakers argued that the 131 funds selected for liquidation were identified using broad filters rather than individual fund reviews. In their view, this included some liquid or less problematic funds while leaving some funds they considered more concerning off the list.
• They said the liquidation process caused forced selling, weakened confidence, and harmed investors beyond fund holders. One speaker estimated that the market may have faced TL 50–100 billion in potential share sales; the subtitle’s currency wording is unclear.
• The FNT liquidation was described as having been completed quickly. The fund reportedly fell 11% before liquidation, while the broader market fell 15%. About 1.5% was said to remain, reportedly connected to a bond, before the final amount could be distributed.
• NNF was said not to be in liquidation. Investors were waiting for the relevant notification before it could reopen for trading.
• The speakers criticized rapid, liquidity-insensitive selling by Ziraat in some cases, which they said pushed prices down. They viewed block sales or demand collection and bookbuilding at market prices as better ways to dispose of large positions.
• A fund with about TL 12.7 billion in BIST 30 assets was reportedly being offered to investors, including investment and pension funds, at the closing market value through a subscription process. The speakers considered this preferable to dumping the holdings on the market.
• They believed the forced-selling phase was nearing its end, but cautioned that markets could remain weak and confidence would take time to recover. One speaker said the episode had been highly stressful and might lead him to leave fund management.

Market outlook and macroeconomic context

• The speakers saw signs of stabilization after two relatively stronger sessions, with the index around 10,700, but did not consider this a confirmed reversal.
• They described the BIST 100 as down about 25%, while shares outside it were down roughly 50%; some stocks had fallen 70–80%. They viewed the balance of potential upside versus downside as improving, while warning that further declines of 5–10% remained possible.
• The MSCI review of Türkiye, previously expected in November, was said to have been postponed until June. The speakers expected Türkiye to remain in the index but said uncertainty could weigh on the market until the decision.
• They linked the fund turmoil and investment losses to weaker household consumption. They said lower consumption could help reduce inflation and create room for interest-rate cuts, but could also hurt consumer-facing businesses, especially retail.
• Brent crude was said to have eased from about $110 to $103. The speakers saw lower oil prices and reduced war risk as potentially supportive for inflation and Turkish equities. One described a 100-basis-point rate cut in December as highly likely; 150 basis points was presented as possible if positive developments helped push oil into the $70–80 range. These were expectations, not confirmed outcomes.
• The discussion also referred to U.S. elections and the possibility that a weaker position for President Trump could constrain his policy agenda and improve prospects for de-escalation.

Investment approach and stock-selection framework

• Consider dividends as a source of downside support. The speakers said reliable dividend payments can provide a valuation reference and help a stock recover more quickly, particularly when prices are depressed. They did not advocate a permanent dividend-only strategy.
• Assess the company and its sector together. Look for businesses with sound operations, cash generation, and growth prospects, while checking whether a sector’s outlook is genuinely improving.
• Review current financial statements. Do not assume that a price decline alone makes a stock attractive. The speakers emphasized cash flow, debt, earnings quality, and whether a business can withstand weaker demand.
• Distinguish forced selling from deteriorating fundamentals. Liquidation-related selling may create opportunities in fundamentally sound companies, but investors should verify the source of the pressure rather than assume every stock being sold is attractive.
• Balance diversification and concentration. The speakers said concentrated portfolios may outperform during a rally, but argued that broad diversification could also work at depressed valuations. They did not recommend narrowing portfolios to only a few names in the current uncertain market.
• They cautioned that buying a stock solely because a fund owns it is risky: the fund may sell while the individual investor remains exposed.

Sectors and companies discussed

• Banks: Garanti BBVA announced a buyback of about 85 million shares, approximately 2% of its shares; its public float was described as below 14%. The speakers saw potential positive signaling for the banking sector and expected lower rates to improve cost conditions, while noting that the buyback could reduce the float further.
• Aviation: The speakers favored TAV, Turkish Airlines (THY), and Pegasus, in that order. They cited TAV’s completed investment phase and potential to benefit from its investments, and said THY was working to reduce costs. They noted that Pegasus is more sensitive to occupancy rates and aircraft capacity.
• REITs and real estate: They said new-home sales were weak and recommended focusing more on net asset value discounts and a longer time horizon than on near-term sales. They also noted that Emlak Konut might miss its annual sales target. Tenant-focused REITs such as Torunlar GYO had fallen less than many other shares, which the speakers characterized as relatively defensive but potentially less attractive than stocks with greater recovery potential.
• Renewable energy and power equipment: The speakers saw possible opportunities, arguing that electricity demand may be less sensitive to household cutbacks. They cited sharp share-price declines despite continuing tenders and contracts. Gesan and Europower were mentioned in connection with Tera-related selling; Astor was also discussed.
• Retail and consumer businesses: The speakers cautioned that reduced household spending could pressure food and textile retailers. They highlighted the importance of debt levels and cash generation.
• Insurance and pensions: They did not expect a major sector-wide outflow from private pensions. They said the issues might be more concentrated at Türkiye Sigorta and Türkiye Hayat Emeklilik, and advised waiting for financial statements before judging the effects of reserves, losses, and capital allocation. Anadolu Hayat and AgeSA were also discussed.
• Company results: National Factoring, Ebebek, and Kıraç Galvaniz were cited as examples of companies whose financial results had stood out positively. Desa was mentioned as an example of a company with cash-flow and valuation characteristics worth reviewing in its financial statements.

Tickers, assets, indices, and institutions mentioned

• Funds: FNT, NNF, TMV, PH. Other named fund or portfolio entities included Tera, Pusula, Atlas, Bulls, A1 Capital, Pardus, Hedef, and Ziraat.
• Indices and instruments: BIST 30, BIST 100, Participation 50, MSCI indices, investment funds, private pension funds, bonds, and Brent crude.
• Stocks and companies: Sasa, VakıfBank, Şişecam, İş Bankası, Garanti BBVA, Simpaş, National Factoring, Ebebek, Kıraç Galvaniz, TAV, Turkish Airlines, Pegasus, Emlak Konut, Astor, Gesan, Europower, AgeSA, Anadolu Hayat, Türkiye Sigorta, Türkiye Hayat Emeklilik, Torunlar GYO, Desa, and Alvest/Alveus (name unclear in the subtitles).
• Regulators and market bodies: Türkiye’s Capital Markets Board (SPK), Borsa Istanbul, and MSCI.

Disclosures and cautions

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.
• The speakers largely presented market views and sector opinions, and repeatedly said stock-specific analysis should be supported by financial statements. They avoided making detailed, direct stock recommendations in this discussion.

Presenters and sources

Presenters: Yunus Şahin and Yaşar Yıldırım.

Other sources or people referenced: Fintables, Parantez Publications, Ali Cenk, and Çağkan.