Trader Called Tech Crash--Now Predicts ‘Black Christmas’ For Stocks | Todd Horwitz

Summary

In an interview recorded on November 3, 2026, trader and investor Todd “Bubba” Horwitz argued that markets could stage a short-term rebound after the tech selloff, but that the rally would likely be an opportunity to sell. He warned of further downside into year-end, including a possible “Black Christmas” similar to 2018.

His outlook differed between his trading approach—short-term bearish and willing to short rallies—and his long-term investing approach—holding and adding to positions during declines.

Market and election outlook

• Horwitz said the midterm election outcome was unlikely to have a lasting effect on stocks, though positioning could prompt a sharp, temporary reaction in either direction. He expected a possible relief rally but said he would look to sell into it.
• He acknowledged the historical tendency for markets to rally after midterms, but said he was positioning differently this time.
• On the day of the interview, the Nasdaq was up about 1% and the S&P 500 about 0.5%, following a volatile period.
• He said the S&P reaching 8,000 by year-end was unlikely in the current environment. The host cited prediction-market odds of 32%, down about 13 percentage points from the previous day. A hypothetical $50 trade on that outcome was described as potentially paying $149 if correct.
• Horwitz said he had working orders to sell the S&P at 7,620 and was comfortable being short, while acknowledging he could be wrong.
• He forecast that the Nasdaq could fall another 5–8% before year-end and said a 40–60% market decline was possible. He argued that the recent selloff had not yet shown the panic or capitulation he would expect at a durable bottom.

Technology and AI stocks

• The host cited declines including Google/Alphabet down 12% in a recent session, AMD down about 10%, Nvidia down 5%, and Intel down 30% after earnings. For October, the host cited Intel down 43%, Google 19%, CoreWeave nearly 40%, AMD 17%, Nvidia 10%, and TSMC 11%.
• The host also said Apple was down about 3.5% and Palantir about 5% on the interview date. Apple reportedly beat revenue expectations but missed gross-margin forecasts, with China sales weaker than expected; the host characterized Palantir’s results as mixed against forecasts.
• Horwitz rejected the idea that the selloff was automatically a “generational opportunity” to dollar-cost average into AI. He argued that AI-related companies may be taking on substantial debt—including what he described as trillions of dollars of off-balance-sheet debt—and questioned whether profits would justify valuations and investment.
• He warned that some AI-related shares were already down 70–80%, but said he expected more selling and did not consider the broader decline complete. He cited Microsoft’s reported buyout of 60,000 employees as an example of potential labor-market pressure.
• His central test for companies was whether they generate real profits and enough cash to cover their debt. He questioned whether AI infrastructure spending could be sustained if companies and consumers weakened.
• Despite his bearish trading outlook, he said he continued to hold Google, Nvidia, Monster Beverage, and other long-term positions, and bought more Google and Monster during the decline.

Portfolio approach and risk management

Horwitz distinguished between his investor and trader positions:

• Long-term investing: He said he remains net long, does not sell holdings simply because markets fall, and adds to positions when his model signals it. He said he would sell a stock only if its fundamentals changed enough that he no longer considered the company viable.
• Trading: He said he had been shorting the market on a daily basis when opportunities arose and planned to continue. He expected to sell into a potential rally.
• Hedging: He said he hedges long-term positions rather than rotating wholesale into defensive sectors. He described “risk-on/risk-off” sector rotation as unreliable and argued that investors should avoid trying to time market tops and bottoms.
• Position sizing: For gold, he offered an example of investing $10,000 in stages, such as buying $2,500 at a time, rather than trying to pick the bottom. He stressed investing only money that can remain invested and cautioned against borrowing or using funds needed for bills.
• He said his long-term model adds to positions using credits generated by options, while he separately maintains short-term trading positions. He said he did not sell long-term holdings during the selloff.

Macro, recession, and rates

• The host cited Q3 real GDP growth of 3.4%, which some economists attributed substantially to hyperscaler data-center investment. Horwitz questioned whether headline government statistics reflected economic conditions, disputed the official inflation and jobs data, and said he trusted the private ISM manufacturing and services surveys more.
• He argued that the economy was already in a recession for many households, describing a K-shaped economy in which higher-income consumers were faring better than lower-income households.
• He cited consumer stress indicators: 25% of the population 90 or more days behind on credit-card payments, 10% defaulting on auto loans, and 8% defaulting on mortgages. These were Horwitz’s claims in the interview, not independently verified in the discussion.
• The host said a New York Fed Treasury-spread recession estimate had reached about 70% in 2025 before falling below 20%. Horwitz said recession risks remained significant and placed a potential downturn in 2026 or 2027, without giving a precise date.
• Horwitz said the market’s valuation, including the Shiller/CAPE measure, was historically high and difficult to sustain. He cited long-run market gains of roughly 8.5% annually over a broad historical period and 10% annually since 1950, while cautioning that the next several months could be much worse.
• He said he was selling 10-year Treasury futures, indicating an expectation that rates could rise. However, he said falling yields could signal deeper economic weakness and would be consistent with his bearish stock-market view.
• He characterized a flattening or inversion of the yield curve as unfavorable for stocks and a warning of economic stress, as short-term funding demand rises.
• On Federal Reserve policy, he argued that controlling inflation should take priority over supporting stock prices. He said rate increases could be needed, though a worsening economy might eventually force the Fed to stop hiking or cut rates. The host mentioned market expectations for another December hike.

Oil and inflation

• Horwitz remained bearish on crude oil, calling it overpriced and saying he would sell a rally. He had previously identified $105 as a selling level and said he would sell more if oil returned to $100, though he did not expect it to.
• He cited the futures curve, which he described as backwardated, as pointing to crude around $77–$79 per barrel one year ahead; he gave a specific one-year futures price of $78.78.
• His bearish case included weak demand, plentiful supply, and a lack of robust economic growth. He noted that geopolitical headlines could still produce short-lived price spikes.
• Despite his expectation that oil could fall, he said inflation would remain high until costs—including oil, food, and beef—came down. He described current inflation as driven by government spending and debt rather than strong consumer demand.

Gold and silver

• With gold around $3,930, below $4,000, Horwitz said he was buying physical gold for the long term, while acknowledging the possibility of a decline to around $3,600.
• He said he expected gold eventually to return to $5,500 and make new highs, but did not give a timeline. His approach was to scale in rather than try to identify the low.
• The host cited a $3,800 level at which DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach had reportedly said he would buy aggressively; Horwitz agreed that it could be an attractive level for investors able to hold through volatility.
• Horwitz said silver was down nearly 70% from its highs and described both gold and silver as potential long-term positions, with a strong caution against using money needed for near-term expenses.
• He attributed some of the precious-metals selling to investors liquidating assets to meet equity-market margin calls.

Assets and instruments mentioned

• Equities: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Apple, Palantir, Google/Alphabet, AMD, Nvidia, Intel, CoreWeave, TSMC, Microsoft, Monster Beverage.
• Commodities and metals: Crude oil, gold, silver.
• Rates and fixed income: 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasuries, Treasury futures, yield curve, CDs.
• Other references: AI/data-center investment, options, 401(k) contributions, ISM manufacturing and services surveys, CPI, GDP, and prediction-market contracts.

Disclosures and cautions

• Horwitz said he was speaking both as a trader and an investor, and repeatedly warned against leverage and investing money needed for upcoming expenses.
• The program included a sponsored prediction-market promotion and described a hypothetical trade payout. That promotion was separate from Horwitz’s market analysis.
• The video’s stated disclaimer says it is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Viewers should do their own research and consult a licensed financial professional. Guest views are their own.

Presenters and cited sources: Host David Lin and guest Todd “Bubba” Horwitz, founder of BubbaTrading.com. Other sources or references discussed included CNBC, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the New York Fed, ISM surveys, Warren Buffett, DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach, and prediction-market traders.