Riyadh's Airport Burns, Tankers Next /Alastair Crooke

Summary

Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke argues that Iran is unlikely to let the conflict fade from view before the U.S. midterms. He says Tehran does not consider indirect messages from mediators to be negotiations and will not enter talks until its stated preconditions are met. In his view, Iran is escalating pressure on the United States while anticipating possible further U.S. attacks.

Shipping and Gulf energy infrastructure

Crooke describes a shift in attacks on commercial shipping: he says vessels are increasingly being hit in their engine rooms, causing more serious damage and raising repair, insurance, and shipping costs. He warns that disruption could affect the price of containerized goods, adding to inflation beyond higher fuel costs. He also says the threat is extending beyond the Strait of Hormuz, including to shipping near Fujairah.

Crooke’s assessment is that a U.S. strike on Iran could prompt heavier Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.

Yemen and Saudi Arabia

Crooke portrays the Houthis (Ansar Allah) as gaining leverage through attacks on Saudi airports and pressure on air routes. He says Saudi-backed forces are struggling in Yemen’s highlands and that damage to a pipeline carrying oil toward the Red Sea could take months to repair.

He also suggests Saudi Arabia faces financial and internal political vulnerabilities, and that the conflict could alter regional borders and alignments. These are Crooke’s claims and predictions, not independently established in the interview.

Regional transformation

Crooke’s broader argument is that the Middle East is undergoing a major geopolitical transformation rather than moving toward a quick return to normal. He cites Iran’s reported volunteer mobilization as evidence, in his view, that Tehran is preparing for a prolonged struggle rather than seeking only a short-term agreement with Washington.

Russia and Ukraine

Crooke says Moscow distrusts ceasefires, fearing they could give Ukraine time to rearm, and would prefer negotiations to continue while fighting persists. He argues that U.S. and European proposals focused on investment and reconstruction do not address Russia’s central demand for a security arrangement limiting NATO’s reach.

He warns that European military escalation—including possible Tomahawk missile deployments—could raise the risk of a direct confrontation, while the United States might not intervene if Europe faced a nuclear crisis.

Crooke also says Russia’s campaign has shifted toward degrading Ukraine’s logistics and infrastructure. He interprets damage to bridges in Kyiv as calibrated to impede military equipment while allowing people to cross, and says Russian forces are increasingly pressuring Ukrainian positions.

He concludes that European governments may reconsider their policies only when economic hardship becomes severe enough, pointing to inflation, unemployment, and weakened manufacturing as sources of pressure.

Presenters and contributors

• Daniel Davis — presenter
• Alastair Crooke — guest and geopolitical commentator