Silver's Brutal Crash May Be Setting Up Its Biggest Rally in 25 Years | Ed Steer

Summary

Precious-metals analyst Ed Steer argues that the sharp decline in gold and silver may be setting up a major rally. His central evidence is an unusual pattern in COMEX Commitments of Traders (COT) data: despite large price drops, the eight largest commercial traders allegedly have not reduced their short positions by anything like the amounts seen in previous selloffs. Steer says this is unprecedented in the roughly 25 years he has tracked the pattern.

He also points to managed-money traders’ unusually low net-long position in silver as a historically bullish signal. He expects gold and silver eventually to exceed their prior highs, but stresses that a rally depends on commercial traders ceasing to sell against the market. These are Steer’s interpretations and forecasts, not independently established conclusions.

Trading and market framework discussed

• Track COMEX COT positioning: Compare the Big Eight commercial traders’ short positions before and after a major price decline. Steer says the customary pattern is for commercial traders to cover shorts as prices fall.
• Watch managed-money positioning in silver: Steer treats a very small net-long position—or a shift to net short—as a contrarian bullish indicator. He says this has occurred only about three times in 25 years and has preceded major rallies.
• Assess market sentiment and technical conditions: He notes that silver’s RSI was bouncing from oversold territory and invokes the “buy when there’s blood in the streets” approach.
• Monitor the alleged catalyst: In Steer’s view, a sustained rally requires the large commercial traders to stop selling or “allow” prices to rise.
• Follow the options market: He discusses large December gold call-option positions at very high strikes, while cautioning that their significance is uncertain and depends on a substantial catalyst.

Key figures and claims

• Silver was described as having fallen from about $120 to roughly $54, a decline of around $65–$70 from the high. Gold was said to have fallen about $1,600, from approximately $5,600 to around $4,000–$4,100.
• For gold, Steer cited the Big Eight as short 218,000 contracts on January 27, versus roughly 213,000 in a later report. Elsewhere in the interview, he gave the change as 4,700 contracts.
• For silver, he cited 55,000 contracts short before the crash and a reduction of only 7,300 contracts afterward.
• Managed-money traders were reported net long 3,505 silver contracts in the latest COT figure he cited. Steer expected the next report might show them neutral or net short.
• Steer said gold calls included about 38,000 contracts at a $20,000 strike and a similar number at $15,000, plus tens of thousands at strikes from roughly $8,000 to $12,000. He described the total as potentially a couple hundred thousand contracts. He said the options’ expiration was November 24; the timing and figures are presented as his recollection of data last checked about two months earlier.
• Steer argued silver should be worth three figures per ounce and that $50 silver is cheap in inflation-adjusted terms compared with past periods when it traded near that price. He also called gold at around $4,000 inexpensive.
• He said he personally bought stocks during the selloff and physical gold around $4,200–$4,300, and added more money to the market. The specific stock was not identified.
• Steer said a move to the extreme gold option strikes would likely require a major financial, monetary, or military event.

Macro thesis and risks

Steer contends that central banks and large financial institutions have managed or suppressed precious-metals prices through COMEX short positions since the end of the gold standard, and that the system is becoming unsustainable. He argues that fiat currencies are losing purchasing power, government debt is unpayable without default or inflation, and rising demand from countries including China, India, and Russia will pressure commodity prices higher. He also claimed that China holds more than 20,000 tonnes of gold.

He described gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, and crude oil as strategically important commodities and said crude oil at $100 per barrel would be cheap. His claims of coordinated price suppression, engineered selloffs, and an approaching collapse of the fiat system are his views, not verified facts in the interview.

Assets, instruments, and sectors mentioned

• Precious metals: silver, gold, platinum, palladium
• Other commodities: copper, crude oil, rubber, coal
• Markets and instruments: COMEX futures, COT reports, gold call options, physical bullion
• Other investments and sectors: stocks, bonds, paper assets, pension-fund and hedge-fund positioning
• Companies and stocks mentioned: Nvidia and Tesla, as examples of paper assets

Disclosures, service, and promotions

Steer explicitly said his views were not investment advice and described the December-options scenario as his personal bet. The interview also included a sales pitch for Steer’s service: 260 columns per year (five per week) covering precious-metals markets, trader reports, inventories, and physical metal flows, priced at $100 per year.

The closing Miles Franklin promotion, dated October 26–November 2, 2026, offered:

• One-ounce Austrian Silver Philharmonics at $3.15 over spot.
• Pre-1933 U.S. $20 Liberty gold coins graded MS62 at $90 over melt.
• A stated one-for-one exchange of most standard one-ounce investment coins for MS62 $20 Liberty coins, with exceptions; viewers were told to call for details.

Presenters and sources

• Elijah K. Johnson — Liberty and Finance host/interviewer; the closing advertisement identifies the speaker as Kaiser Johnson.
• Ed Steer — Ed Steer Gold and Silver Digest; interview guest.
• Ted Butler — cited by Steer, including his 2023 essay “The Wealth of Silver Shorts.”
• Other individuals referenced: Nathan Rothschild, Keith Neumeyer, Judy Shelton, Scott Bessent, and Alistair MacLeod.