If You Own Silver or Gold, Watch This Before November

Summary

Jordan Roy-Byrne argues that gold and silver remain in a long-term bull market but are nearing the end of a sharp cyclical correction. He expects a recovery to begin soon and describes the coming months—potentially through the end of winter—as a significant buying window for gold, silver, and junior miners. These are his forecasts, not confirmed outcomes.

He says the earlier-year price peaks were cyclical rather than secular tops like those of 1980 or 2011. In his view, the broader precious-metals and commodities bull market could continue into the 2030s, with a major rotation from stocks into gold still ahead—likely associated with a future stock-market bear market, economic slowdown, and Fed easing.

Market Comparisons and Outlook

• Gold corrections: He compares the current decline with past bull-market corrections, citing a 45–47% decline in 1975–76 and a 33% intraday decline in 2008. He considers the current correction similar to the second-largest historical decline and expects it could be somewhat worse in magnitude and duration.
• Silver: He estimates the current decline at about 60% over nine months, comparable to a 61% decline over roughly eight months in 2008. He says the current correction is already worse in price terms than the cited 1970s downturns, but likely shorter in duration.
• Gold recovery timing: Based on historical analogues, he estimates a new gold high around July 2027 in a fast-recovery scenario, or around April 2028 using the average analogue. His own expectation is late 2027 or early 2028.
• He cautions that timing depends on fundamentals and that he cannot predict every market top or bottom.

Macro and Positioning

Roy-Byrne says recent selling appears more like investor panic than a move supported by deteriorating fundamentals. He views the recent fall in yields as constructive for gold:

• The real 10-year yield reportedly fell from around 3% to 2.6%.
• The 2-year Treasury yield fell from nearly 5% to 4.60%.
• He says peaks and reversals in the 2-year yield have historically coincided with gold lows, and that falling real yields are supportive of gold.
• He considers fundamentals no longer bearish—at worst neutral—and expects them to become more bullish if the Fed pauses or cuts rates.

He also highlights what he sees as low gold exposure and room for future investment flows:

• In a family-office survey he attributes to In Gold We Trust and Ronnie Stöferle, 72% reportedly held no gold, 19% held 1–5% of portfolios in gold, and 9% held more than 5%.
• Among family offices that invest in gold, he cites an average allocation of 0.9%.
• He estimates gold’s share of ETF holdings at roughly 1.6–1.8%, compared with 8.2% at the 2011 peak.

Technical Analysis and Investment Framework

• Market context: Compare current corrections with historical declines during precious-metals bull markets, and distinguish cyclical corrections from secular tops.
• Macro signals: Monitor real interest rates, the 2-year and 10-year yields, the yield curve, Fed policy, and stock-market weakness for signs of a shift toward gold.
• Junior-miner selection: Focus on small companies with quality, large-scale projects that could become significant mines, and with room to advance or develop over the next 2–3 years.
• Portfolio approach: Roy-Byrne says investors may do better by selecting strong individual companies than simply holding the junior-miner sector. He frames the goal as finding companies that could deliver substantial returns, including possible 10x outcomes, but this is an aspirational target, not a guaranteed result.

Assets, Sectors, and Instruments Mentioned

• Gold and silver
• Gold and silver mining companies, including junior miners
• GDXJ (junior gold-miners ETF)
• S&P 500 / gold ratio and the broader stock market
• Energy, commodities, and real assets
• Treasury yields: 2-year and 10-year, including the real 10-year yield
• Gold ETFs and ETF gold allocations

Specific Callouts and Cautions

• Roy-Byrne describes GDXJ as extremely oversold across the 20-, 50-, and 200-day timeframes. He says a manually calculated breadth reading of 19% was stale and might have fallen to 5–6%; he planned to confirm the data later.
• He identifies price support for GDXJ in the 90s, notes a recent close around 95, and calls that a buying opportunity.
• He says the near-term buying window may open around November and remain available for a few months, potentially through the end of winter. He expects prices to begin rising within days or by the end of the following week.
• The video contains no explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer. Roy-Byrne acknowledges uncertainty in market timing and says fundamentals could affect the forecast. He also promotes The Daily Gold Premium, a paid research service, and says it discusses companies he personally owns or plans to acquire.

Presenters and Sources

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Chartered Technical Market Analyst and Master of Financial Technical Analysis; In Gold We Trust and Ronnie Stöferle (family-office gold-allocation figures); Rick Rule (prior subscriber interview).