Gold's Correction Isn't Over, But the Bigger Bull Market Is Still Alive | Peter Grandich

Summary

Peter Grandich says gold and precious-metals markets may still be correcting after a sharp, parabolic advance, but he views the pullback as part of a longer-term bull market. He is bullish on gold and silver over the long run, while warning that stocks and bonds face significant risks from stretched valuations, deteriorating market breadth, government debt, and potentially higher interest rates.

Markets and investment views

Gold and precious-metals equities

• Grandich said he had recently moved “fully back in the game,” with as much invested as possible in metals and mining stocks, but without using margin.
• He warned that gold could remain below $4,000 for more than a brief period and might trade in the mid-$3,000s. He considers that outcome unlikely, but says a deeper correction could ultimately support a stronger subsequent advance.
• With two months left in the year, he said gold could move about $300 in either direction and that he could not predict the near-term path. Looking a year ahead, he expects a higher gold price.
• He considers gold and silver worth owning, while noting that silver has lagged gold in investor optimism.
• He cited central-bank gold buying and repatriation, along with growing institutional acceptance, as long-term supports. He said one large financial institution now tells clients it is willing to hold as much gold as Treasuries—an allocation he described as shifting a traditional 60/40 portfolio to 60/20/20.
• He said gold had gained roughly 300% over the prior decade. His comment that he would welcome a 30% annual return for the next 10 years was rhetorical, not a forecast.

Stocks and AI

• Grandich believes an AI-led market bubble is showing cracks. He pointed to the S&P 500 being roughly flat since June/July, while new lows outnumbered new highs and a growing number of index constituents had fallen 10%, 20%, or even 40% from their peaks.
• He cited recent Alphabet results and said a relatively small group of stocks was keeping the broader market afloat.
• He said that over the previous 30 trading sessions, the public had been the largest buyers of AI stocks while hedge funds were the largest sellers.
• In his view, weakening breadth and slowing momentum could lead to a prolonged market decline, though he acknowledged that the market could also move sideways.

Bonds, interest rates, and debt

• Grandich expects the long-term direction of interest rates to be upward and said a 6% 10-year Treasury yield was more likely than a return to 4%. He noted that the yield had recently moved above 5% before easing below that level.
• He attributed upward pressure in part to large US deficits, a potential decline in foreign appetite for US borrowing, inflation, and economic conditions. He cited a Congressional Budget Office estimate that US debt could reach $63 trillion in less than 10 years.
• He said that in 2021 he advised clients to sell Treasury bonds and buy gold, arguing that gold would outperform bonds.
• He described lower-rated corporate debt as especially risky. Yields of 15–20%, compared with 3–4% on bank deposits, may indicate a significant risk that some issuers cannot make interest payments—particularly among some AI-related financings.
• He viewed top-rated corporate bonds as comparatively resilient. He cited Microsoft raising $25 billion in bonds, which he said sold out within hours, but cautioned against treating Microsoft as safer than the US government.
• For the next 12 months, if forced to choose, he considered bonds less likely than stocks to suffer a large loss, while still viewing both asset classes negatively.

Framework, recommendations, and cautions

Portfolio and timing

• Grandich says he is an investor, not a trader, and does not try to identify the exact bottom. He accepts that metals or mining shares he buys could fall another 10% or 10–20%, respectively, before recovering.
• He favors a long-term perspective over reacting to short-term market moves, noting that the average stock holding period reportedly fell from 8.6 years in 1980 to six months by the end of 2025.
• He said investors could be better positioned by preserving capital and avoiding major losses over the next 12–24 months, rather than rushing into investments.

Household financial resilience

• His first step is to spend less than you earn, reduce reliance on borrowing, and live within—or below—your means.
• He cautioned that governments facing persistent deficits may raise taxes or cut services, adding pressure to household finances.
• He emphasized that investment success depends not only on returns but also on how much is not lost, and urged investors to consider the emotional stress of a bear market.
• He warned that many investors and advisers have limited experience with sustained bear markets; he said about two-thirds of financial advisers had entered the industry since the 2008 financial crisis.

Political scenarios and market implications

Grandich offered conditional, politically based market scenarios rather than a neutral forecast:

• Republican retention of the House would be the best case for stocks.
• A Democratic House majority could be neutral or negative for stocks and positive for gold.
• Democratic control of both the House and Senate would, in his view, be bullish for metals and bearish for financial assets. He suggested gold could rise $1,000–$2,000 over 12–18 months in that scenario.

Disclosures and commercial information

• Grandich said he is currently invested in metals and mining shares and acknowledged that this could bias his views. He also said he receives no payment from the channel and claimed he had no ulterior motive.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.
• The closing advertisement promoted Miles Franklin offers, including Austrian Silver Philharmonics at $3.15 over spot and certain pre-1934 US $20 Liberty gold coins at $90 over metal value in MS62 condition, with a stated one-for-one exchange offer subject to exceptions. The offer was dated October 26–November 2, 2026, while supplies lasted.

Assets, instruments, companies, and indices mentioned

• Assets and instruments: Gold, silver, mining stocks, US Treasuries, corporate bonds (including lower-rated/high-yield and top-rated debt), bank deposits, the US dollar, stocks/equities, and AI-related financing.
• Companies: Alphabet and Microsoft.
• Indices: S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.
• No stock ticker symbols or ETFs were explicitly named.

Presenters and sources

Presenter: Elijah K. Johnson (the closing subtitles also render the name as “Kaiser Johnson”). Guest: Peter Grandich, of Peter Grandich & Company. The closing bullion offers are attributed to Miles Franklin.