Промышленный рост на двух скоростях

Summary

The presenter says Rosstat’s first-half industrial data show that Russia’s broad industrial growth has stalled. After declines during the Covid period, a recovery in 2021, and a slight fall in 2022, growth surged in 2023–24—but mainly in a narrow group of sectors supported by government spending. In 2025, this momentum began to weaken: growth in some priority industries was no longer enough to offset slower activity across civilian industries.

To explain this pattern, the presenter invokes economist Grigory Feldman’s “two-sector” model, which Feldman discussed during Stalin’s time. Investment can drive rapid growth in a chosen sector, but that sector may absorb resources without generating enough demand to lift the rest of the economy. In the presenter’s view, continued budget support for priority industries is not translating into broader growth because other sectors are being squeezed for resources.

The presenter emphasizes that whether this is considered a problem depends on the measure of success. If the goal is overall economic growth, the slowdown is worrying. If the goal is to keep industry operating and meet government priorities, the restructuring may be considered successful.

In response to audience questions, the presenter argues that support for this industrial policy reflects decades of demands to revive factories, dating back to the early post-Soviet period. Attempts to transform the old industrial base have not produced comparable growth elsewhere, while consumer goods remain heavily imported. The industries currently expanding, he argues, depend on budget funding, and the people tied to them have few alternatives if that support ends.

Finally, the presenter says Russia’s industrial, infrastructural, technological, and social foundations were shaped in the Stalin era and remain influential. He considers it useful to study Stalin and other historical thinkers when examining present-day economic policy.

Participants

• Presenter: Unnamed host of Pesets Show.
• Contributors: None appear in the subtitles. Grigory Feldman is discussed, but does not appear as a contributor.