Vonovia Eskalation: Leute, das glaubt ihr nie!

Summary

The presenter argues that acquiring Vonovia through a voluntary share purchase could be cheaper and faster than expropriating the relevant housing assets. He cites an estimated expropriation cost of about €39 billion, compared with a Vonovia market value of roughly €13.65 billion. A takeover would likely require a premium; he speculates that an offer of €17–19 billion might be sufficient, given the company’s weak recent share performance.

He also notes that a takeover would face legal and practical hurdles, and that buying shares could drive up the share price.

Investment case presented

The presenter’s case for Vonovia rests on several points:

• Debt: He says 96% of Vonovia’s debt is fixed-rate, limiting its exposure to current interest-rate fluctuations.
• Property value: He cites a net property value of €46 per share.
• Income: He says the company has generally paid dividends, although it has reduced them at times, including in 2022. He describes the current dividend yield as nearly 8%.
• Risks: Legal and political disputes could take years to resolve and may weigh on the share price. He characterizes the stock as potentially volatile.

Share-price view and personal approach

The presenter says Vonovia shares had fallen about 30% over six months and had previously traded near €50. He refers to prices around €16 and a brief recovery to about €15.50.

His stated approach is to make a limited initial purchase, then wait for the price to fall below or remain around €14 before buying more heavily. He also suggests that a political outcome favorable to Vonovia could lift the share price above €20, describing this as short-term speculation rather than a core valuation case.

Figures and entities mentioned

• Vonovia: Approximately 76% free float, with around 12.2% attributed to Norges Bank, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund.
• Other investors: BlackRock and APG are mentioned. The presenter describes APG uncertainly as a possible pension fund.
• Housing assets: The video cites about 240,000 apartments in connection with the expropriation-cost estimate, including properties associated with Deutsche Wohnen. It also refers to about 120,000 apartments in Berlin, more than 500,000 Vonovia-owned apartments across Germany, Austria and Sweden, and roughly 600,000 units when properties managed for others are included.
• Instruments and services: Vonovia shares, ETFs, dividend-paying stocks, savings plans and the Freedom24 brokerage.

Framework and recommendations presented

The presenter’s framework is to compare the estimated cost of expropriation with Vonovia’s market value and the likely premium needed for a takeover, while also assessing the company’s debt-rate exposure, property value per share and dividend yield. He advises accounting for legal and political uncertainty, including the possibility that disputes could continue for several years.

His proposed buying approach is his personal view, not a general recommendation.

Disclosures and source

The video promotes Freedom24 and mentions potential bonuses and brokerage features. The accompanying channel disclosure says that investing involves risk, past performance and forecasts do not reliably predict future results, and viewers should conduct their own research or seek independent professional advice. Affiliate links may earn revenue for the channel.

The presenter is not named in the subtitles. The video is from Aktien mit Kopf; the presenter also refers to a Vonovia analysis on his blog.