Inside my 40 CRORE Portfolio! (& My #1 Pick) | Akshat Shrivastava

Finance-focused summary of “Inside my 40 CRORE Portfolio! | Akshat Shrivastava”

Portfolio context / thesis

• The presenter claims to run a ~₹40 crore portfolio and is “betting big on the AI story.”
• He frames the debate as “AI bubble” versus earnings/rational upside.
• His approach is scenario-planning rather than making a single conviction bet.

Disclosures / stance

• He says: “I’m not saying that my viewpoint could not be wrong… I could lose all this money.”
• No explicit “not financial advice” statement appears in the subtitles.

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Tickers / assets / instruments / sectors mentioned

Equities / companies (examples)

• NVIDIA
• Meta
• Microsoft
• Amazon
• Google (Alphabet)
• Micron
• Broadcom
• Tesla
• Nykaa
• Paytm
• Rajesh Exports (mentioned as an example of fraud/data issues)

ETFs / indices

• QQQ (discussed as the Nasdaq proxy)
• Nifty 50 (multiples discussed)

Macro / investing instruments

• Gold (described as having had a “record rally,” 2024–2025)
• Bonds (discussed via the historical equity–bond relationship)
• Options (covered calls / call option selling)
• Bond option (mentioned as a strategy he says doesn’t work now)

Sectors

• Tech
• Healthcare
• Finance
• Gold (commodity)
• Mentions of small caps / mid caps / micro caps as areas to be cautious with (notably liquidity risk)

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Key numbers, valuations, and performance metrics mentioned

Market drawdown analogies (dot-com / Nasdaq)

• Nasdaq corrected by ~78% from peak (dot-com reference)
• S&P 500 corrected by ~50% from peak (dot-com reference)
• Claim: Nasdaq rose ~550%+ from 1995 to the bubble peak, then corrected by ~70–80%

AI capex buildout assumptions (bear case driver)

• Hyperscalers committed spend till 2027 to 2030
• Total AI CAPEX estimate: $650B to $1T
• Bear case example:
  • Spend ~$650B but revenues only ~$300B

Valuation / PE multiple compression

• Nifty 50 example multiples:
  • Current: ~20x
  • Earlier: ~25x (2–3 years / a few years back)
• Forward PE references:
  • Forward PE of Nasdaq/QQQ ~23
  • “Long-term historic PE ~21–22”
• Multiple compression logic (illustrative):
  • If PE goes from 32 → 20, then ~50% correction on QQQ

QQQ price path projections (3 scenarios)

• Current QQQ level: ~700
• Bear case (3 years): QQQ around ~650
  • ~5–7% correction, then sideways
• Base case (3 years): QQQ around ~900
  • ~30% increase
• Bull case (5 years): claims ~2x gain
  • framed as consistent with “QQQ historic 20-year returns”

Profit-taking rule and speculative allocation limits

• Profit-taking example:
  • If you have 100 units of profit, take out 20 units
• Speculative bet sizing:
  • Don’t allocate more than 20% of the portfolio on “speculative bets”

Other numeric claims

• Market performance:
  • Last 2 years up ~40–45%
• Gold:
  • No specific price number given, but described as a “record rally” (2024–2025)

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Step-by-step / framework shared (methodology)

1) “Are we in an AI bubble?” → critic-check + scenario analysis

• Check big skeptics’ actions:
  • Example: Ray Dalio / Bridgewater talks about an AI bubble, but the presenter argues Dalio’s portfolio behavior suggests he isn’t fully withdrawing/shorting.
• Then run scenario analysis:
  • Build bear / base / bull cases
  • Reconfigure the portfolio per scenario
  • He claims his buy/sell/partial profit actions are disclosed via his community

2) Bear/base/bull case logic for QQQ (through PE + earnings)

• Bear thesis: AI capex ROI fades / earnings slowdown
  • Drivers: AI CAPEX buildout ($650B–$1T) with limited ROI (example revenue ~$300B)
  • Mechanism: multiple compression (PE contraction)
• Bounded downside condition (no crash):
  • He suggests QQQ may not crash if PE stays in a range, which would require earnings slowdown not to worsen too much
• Base case: ~700 → ~900 over ~3 years
• Bull case: ~2x over ~5 years

3) “What to do during a bust/correction?” → 5 strategies (1999-like periods)

He attributes the list to Goldman Sachs and names five:

1. Systematic profit taking with predetermined rules
   • example: take 20% of profit
2. Rotation across segments
   • example direction: from hyper-valued tech to healthcare/finance/broader index/small caps
3. Covered calls / call option selling
   • sell calls to monetize premium; framed as “profit booking”
4. Bond/asset hedge idea
   • he says equity–bond inverse relationship is broken now, so this “does not work at all”
5. Gold hedge
   • gold ran ahead of fundamentals; recommend buying selectively in certain zones

4) Wealth-building playbook for 2026 (5+ actionable principles)

• Don’t wait for a crash: markets often rise first and then correct (dot-com analogy)
• Buy consolidation ranges: buy after consolidation rather than trying to catch a falling knife
• Buy undervalued firms: not “entire sector is a bubble,” but select undervalued companies within sectors
• Profit-taking discipline: if valuation is unclear, take profits 20–30%
• Risk cap on speculation: speculative bets capped at ≤20% of the portfolio (liquidity/illiquidity and fraud risk mentioned)

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Explicit recommendations / cautions

Recommendations

• Use scenario analysis and adapt positioning rather than relying on a single “bubble” narrative.
• Invest sensibly (e.g., avoid extreme valuation entries—example cited: don’t buy Tesla at 200 PE).
• For timing entries, buy consolidation zones rather than during freefall.

Cautions / risk management

• Be skeptical of bubble claims unless the critic’s actions show real risk reduction (e.g., shorting AI stocks or raising cash).
• Avoid excessive exposure to small/mid/micro-cap illiquidity and fraud risk.
• Don’t allocate more than 20% to speculative bets.
• Options caution: covered calls require understanding options; implied as advanced.

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Presenter / sources mentioned

• Akshat Shrivastava (presenter)
• Ray Dalio (critic referenced; discussed via portfolio behavior)
• Bridgewater Associates (referenced through Dalio’s portfolio filings)
• Goldman Sachs (cited as the source of the “5 strategies used in 1999” research reference)